Changes to FIT coming sooner that we thought!

[Scooby]

And he (Greg Barker) confirmed it all - except, unfortunately - the sums involved. Basically the usual stuff - people making double-digit returns on what was meant to be a green incentive, the cost of materials having come down by about 30% ('and as much as 70% some people report').

Shame he wasn't tackled on the actual sums - whether it was going to be 21p and 8th Dec.

Usual unhelpful stuff - it's all confirmed, but we don't know what 'it' is.

 

[Scooby]

Markc, I don't think it's the 'internet' that's wrong here. Either this document is genuine and gives a good reflection of the gov's plans, or it's a 'hardener' so the actual FIT cut won't look as bad (yes, governments do do this - very cynical, but hey...), or it is their current intention but pressure will make them amend it.

I think that's the three scenarios.

(And I said 'do-do'. fnurr fnurr...)

 

[SolarCity]

I'd love to know where he got his figures from. Solar installs have not come down 70% at all (unless you go by Anglian's highest figures a couple of years ago and some of the budget installers price now - clearly not a fair comparison)

You'd hope, wouldn't you, that the man that has 25,000 jobs in his hands would have some more accurate figures at hand.

 

[SRE]

I used to work for and with EST - they are used as a DECC mouthpiece all of the time. I'd be surprised if the figures and times mooted aren't reasonably accurate. It's not in EST's interest to scaremonger in 15 years working with them I never saw anthing like that.

I think Scooby's last scenario is the most likely option and tbh after the solar farm debacle in the summer I wouldn't hold out hope for any significant changes.

Talking to the guys at the Solar Power Portal stand in Birmingham yesterday, their off the record comments were that if it hadn't been for half the cabinet being in Brussels sorting out the Euro crisis Greg Barker would have been making the announcement (and dodging the rotten tomatoes ) on Thursday - that's why his speech was full of hot air!

 

[Scooby]

Little double he threw in the 'as much as 70%' bit 'cos it sounds good and adds meat to his argument. The 'some say' bit means he doesn't have to justify it in any way. Again, typical politic-speak.

But, hey, perhaps that little washer that helps clamp the bracket down has dropped by 70%...

 

[Scooby]

Gentlemen, it's up to all of you (installers) to make as much noise as possible on this. Do write and visit your MP. Do sign the epetition. Do, er, other stuff too.

Everything you've said on this thread, say it to those who can be influenced.

At least try and get them to stage the increments so's it'll only drop by, say, 10p in December and then perhaps another drop next year - so's it at least matches the drop in materials costs a little bit.

 

[SolarCity]

I definitely agree that we should do something but are we not on the outside looking in? The announcement is about to be made Monday. Surely it's too late?

What I do know is that I was never involved in any 'consultation' and I do wonder who exactly got involved in that. I'd dearly love for him to sit with me while I go through my email feed from the last 24 hours.

The solar industry is a glorious success story, rising from the ashes of the recession. These 'men in suits' are about to kick us all down once again.

In the meantime, I will write to my MP - I worry that it may be too little too late though.

 

[malcolmsanford]

I'm so sorry for the genuine lads like Bruce, Biggs, MarkC, SRE etc that investment and time in this part of the industry seems to have now hit a real snag.

Unfortunately it is a rare beast to change a governments mind, if a years strike didn't do it then a petition certainly won't.

I'm with the other lads I'm sure it will not be as draconian and the same platitudes of we have listened to the industry and decided it will now be this .................will be wheeled out.

It gives me no pleasure really to be a told you so, but the current situation could not go on, it is ok to levy subsidies on something when times are affluent, times are not now and with price hikes of the magnitude we have had over the last few months on energy, which do not reflect PV levies I must add, make people angry and aware that they are subsidizing a privilege few who can afford the systems.

I hope truly it is not as bad as it is rumored

 

[malcoa]

Nooooooooooo, i have had my first install on tuesday that wont get inspected untill january for my accreditation, dont know what to do-tell the client what?? He's put his trust in me for this

 

[series530]

I'll state where I am first and what I think second:

It can't have been anything like the anguish that the solar installers have suffered in the past few days but, even as a customer, it isn't plain sailing for me either. I have 14 beautiful Sanyo panels on my roof driving an open circuit. Thanks must go to Enecsys for this. I knew there would be a delay and my installer has been pretty honest with me. The latest bit of news from the Government sent me into recoil. I contacted my installer and he told me that Enecsys are delivering now and we set a provisional system completion date of November 8th. I can live with that provided Enecsys don't screw up. If there is any doubt I will tell my installer to put a string inverter in instead. The cabling is inside the roof and if it requires a bit of extra engineering, so what. The key thing is to hit the FIT this year. If I am honest, I think I will be OK. In fact, I will be laughing to some extent having got on the holy grail of FIT payouts. My house will be worth a load more because of the extra money coming in and I will be getting a much faster return on my outlay than anybody who comes along after December 8th. Excellent! *

That's the face of it. Thinking it through a little bit more, is it quite that clear cut? I honestly don't think that it is. Admittedly, with micro inversion, Sanyo panels and an independent 10 year warranty (taken deliberately for immunity of my supplier going some place else), my system is not cheap. Pretty pricey if the truth be known. If I compare and contrast it with a colleagues installation about 6 months earlier: he's out for a good price and his installer offered me a good price. However, what he has is about 1KWp less than mine and has a string inverter and, as far as I can tell, it isn't much cheaper than mine. If I look at what is being referenced on this forum, 4KWp systems are down around the £10K mark for a one size fits all kit. I can fully understand why the FIT is being reduced. I don't agree with the draconian approach to the reduction but I think that the principle is fair. Easy for me to say as I ride the crest of the wave, I know. Is it fair though, to be getting 12 or 15 or 18 percent returns as we progress quarter by quarter just because I have (had) some cash in the bank? Probably not.

Now, here's where I think it could be good for a fair proportion of the PV installers. I wont debate the fact that some will go to the wall. That is unfortunate. It is equally unfortunate for those who have invested huge sums in infrastructure only to find their market culled by the measures on the horizon. That said, if this cull can get rid of the more recent bottom feeders who have gravitated into this industry on the strength of rich pickings , it has to be a good thing. With luck, it will get rid of the rent a roofers who are swindling pensioners out of their life savings (they tried it with my parents ... but failed) and the double glazing salesmen who don't know the first thing about... well, anything. Is that bad? I think not.
After the cut there will be a time when the market is tough. That is an inevitability. However, stick your money in a bank and see a 3% return. Chance it on the stock market and loose your shirt. Stick it into home improvements and see the housing market drop... there are no end of investments that offer a pretty poor return. Stick it in PV and, even after the reduction in the tariff, it isn't a bad return. Plus, it's tax free. Added to this, if material costs still reduce, albeit less quickly than before, the pay back will still reduce. It will become attractive again. People will want to buy. Less of them, but there will be less suppliers and the market will be self regulating.

Good companies, if well managed, will survive. Reputation will see to that. Diversification will help. Not everyone will want to have the lowest price quote. I hope, for the sake of the installers, there will be people out there who want a decent system with a reasonable harvest and will be prepared to pay for a quality system. Buy a new car and you could buy a bottom of the range Kia (no disrespect to Kia ... just an illustration). So why buy a Mercedes, Audi, Jaguar or a BMW? Simply because you want and can afford something better. I don't see PV being that much different: better harvest, more cash incentive than somebody else, more sexy interfaces, whatever.

The companies that will flourish are the ones that rise above the bottom feeding layer - I am convinced that, provided those companies can get through the next six months, there will still be a market for them and they will be able to make a healthy living. Many will go, for sure - some sadly, some, thankfully... but there will still be a market for quality conscious reputation driven organisations.


* in case you are wondering, I don't honestly believe that it will make a scrap of difference to the value of my house. Easier to sell, perhaps. Worth more, no.

 

[UNG]

Look what happens when the tories get in power. Cuts followed by social breakdown.

The only response to that comment

Look what happened with Labour in power a "boom" in unaffordable and unsustainable spending and trying to hold inflation at 2% with only one tool in the box to use, interest rates. What followed the lending spending boom was the not so "independent" bank of England at the behest of Gordon B making the repayments so expensive the "bust" was inevitable with the resulting social breakdown as people lost their homes and investments. Unfortunately the resulting medicine is not so popular

Why are interest rates relevant to FiT payback? Low interest rates are a just another bonus for irresponsible insolvent banks so why should we suffer again and again for their mistakes?

If interest rates were higher would people choose to invest in PV after all investment is all about the rate of return on the money invested


The question I want to ask those involved was the the FIT rate set high to attract customers to invest in a technology that promises a return over 25 years but has no record or history to make an informed decision on the investment risk. All the publicity and advertising I have seen seems to indicate a fit and forget needs no maintenance system that will last 25 years with usually a 10 year warranty. What in warranty costs, out of warranty costs and equipment longevity can people expect over the expected 25 year life of the system that they are investing in to actually gauge the rate of return. As with all technology it will evolve and improve it will become more efficient and also become cheaper so if repairs are needed will it be an expensive repair and upgrade to an older system if newer panels are not compatible. After 25 years will the PV system still work and be viable or is it then redundant and costs incurred to rip it out

While I appreciate the investment people have made to be part of Solar PV this and other governments have a history with new initiatives you only have to look at HIPS what if Part P disappeared.

Sorry for being somewhat negative but this is my analysis and thoughts on the PV investment

 

[BillyH]

Assuming the worst case senario actually becomes fact as of Monday,what would be considered the last install date likely be?

 

[Green]

I'll be trying to get everyone through by December 1st - I don't want any excuses about FIT applications being lost in the post etc.

 

[CES Heating]

Ive heard on the grapevine that the actual tariff they wanted to put it down to was 9p. Off the record comments I have heard from others have been that they wouldn't be surprised if it went down to this by this time next year.

 

[Scooby]

Series530, very eloquently put, and I agree with 99% of it. Clearly the current situation couldn't continue (and I talk as a 'lucky' customer like you), but the potential damage is being done by the severity of the proposed cuts and the much earlier date. Will this remove the bottom-feeders/double-glazing types? Some of them no doubt. But it'll also harm the genuine installers out there, many of whom are only just dipping their toes into this expensive business - all the expensive outlay, with little prospect of a decent return.

As BiggsSolar, says, I'd love to know where they get their figures from - if they'd had any genuine contact with what was happening on the ground, they could have eased this dramatic change so it wouldn't be as potentially harmful to everyone. Even if that had meant a smaller reduction in FIT a few months back.

But this "Oh sh*t - the money's running out - cut deep and make it sharpish..." reaction is just pitiful.

 

[andyyoyo]

Looks like there is no point in me investing the rest of my training- once my few potential customers hear of this there is no way they will fork out the money. Its bloody pathetic, typical of this country, my friend in France even received a grant for her system plus her 43p in euros. Looks like its a life of housebashing for me after all.

 

[BillyH]

Would it be wise to send FIT applications by registered post ?

 

[BruceB]

Perhaps.
But there is a catch with recorded delivery and similar services.
If there is no-one available to sign, or they refuse to sign then the letter will not be delivered.
In England, the courts normally hold that something sent by first class post can be considered delivered the next day.
So first class plus proof of posting can be slightly more useful if trying to deliver documents in say a small claims court situation.
Perhaps the same might apply to delivering FIT applications....?
Regards
Bruce

 

[Graeme Harrold]

Looking longer term, did anyone else noticed in the EST doc about fits being tied to energy efficiency i.e. C rated properties and above to get the upper tier, does that mean barn/field systems attract the lower rate whatever that may be?

There is still a massive amount of info missing on the EST doc, as has been pointed out >4kW 18x225W and your potentially onto 37.1p/kWhr, this can be hooked up to a SMA3800V and still work well.

I now have customers taking risks on planning and G59 connections to head off the changes, mounting temp installs on the ground before fitting to roofs later just to get on the higher FIT. Im having cash thrown at me to install and have taken orders for 7 systems today alone, 3 of which will be ground mounted untill I have time to book scafolding and aford the time to get it done right.

 

[Graeme Harrold]

Nooooooooooo, i have had my first install on tuesday that wont get inspected untill january for my accreditation, dont know what to do-tell the client what?? He's put his trust in me for this

Personally Id get it signed off by another installer and cancel your inspection while you can. Im sure plenty here would do it for you.

 

[GaryM]

Personally Id get it signed off by another installer and cancel your inspection while you can. Im sure plenty here would do it for you.

Does the FiT certificate need to be sent with an invoice to your energy supplier?
Is so, would they need to come from the same company?

I'm also in a predicament in that the guy I work for and I both completed our C&G2399 this past week and were due to carry out a 4kWp install on my house as a first install in readiness for an MCS assessment from Elecsa who also we're also with for Part P. It seems Elecsa are running at 4-6 weeks for an assessment so an install for me isn't looking too likely now

 

[solarkid]

If the labour were still in power im sure they would of sorted something better out than the torries do ... they would sell there own mother if they had too ... all they do is make the rich richer and sell everthing off including the NHS services if they had the chance ... i think this goverment get off giving contracts abroad making fat cats richer ... this country has gone to the dogs .... And no im not a labour man but hate the torries with passion ...

 

[Noshocks]

My annual assesment is a month late, still havent had a letter with a renewal date, so it does give me the option to jump ship after next months installs are completed, I applied for planning to convert my own flat roof garage to a pitched one last month, I was then going to fit PV, I can see me having to rig this up and register it and take the chance i'll get planning, its a bit naughty but worth the risk.

 

[langstroth2]

If the labour were still in power im sure they would of sorted something better out than the torries do

Errr, who was in power before, during and after the banking fiasco. And who, as usual, brought the country into so much debt?

I agree though the current revision of FiT scheme is a complete shambles, but one where I suspect the blame lies as much with the whitehall machinery (sclerotic processes and not always that engaged bureaucrats, too many of which were employed in roles of questionable benefit - see above) than ministers, who in reality have much less control than people imagine. It must be like trying to helm a super tanker - takes miles before anyone realises the captain's changed and he's asked the ship to move to the right.

 

[SRE]

Anyone started to suss out legitimate shortcuts - I don't mean the work - maybe the paperwork????

 

[Noshocks]

SRE - it depends on whether you plan to renew your MCS, if not then there is no paperwork to do, is there

 

[SolarCity]

I am looking at maybe asking customers if they mind waiting until mid-December for their hand-over pack. As long as the certificate is handed over then there should be no issue. I wouldn't like to think that installers that plan on packing MCS in will forgo this important aspect of an install - it's not the customer's fault that the government are stitching us up.

 

[cbw]

I have today cancelled all my advertising, 2 jobs booked for late November and layed off 2 subbies.

I intend to mothball the company until early next year and then review whats left of the industry.

I will now plough my time and money into expanding my existing successful electrical business, I am SO upset at the way this has panned out and really feel for the guys who have spent out and are awaiting assessment, as mentioned what do you say to your customers???

Absolute disaster for some, including my staff.

 

[sptrotter67]

might as well go do something else now, conservatives destroying the working man's living again, reminds me of Margaret Thatcher's Govt.. D*cks

 

[Yanman]

I have just spent the last hour reading all the posts. I found out about the December 8th date from a customer who read it in the Times today. I know its still speculation but I have that sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. I wanted to end this with something encouraging and uplifting........ but I can't think of anything.

Still its good to know you have brothers to share your grief with.