Are you sure about that? 15-20% seems unrealistically high.
I'm fairly sure.
If we had a hypothetical 4kW inverter, it would most likely have efficiency something like this:
0.25kW DC -> 0.2kW AC (80%)
0.5kW DC -> 0.45kW AC (90%)
1kW DC -> 0.95kW AC (95%)
2.5kW DC -> 2.4kW AC (96%)
4kW DC -> 3.8kW AC (95%)
To some extent the conversion efficiency is also affected by the input voltage of the array; different panels have different voltage and has the most efficient conversion rate when it is somewhere in the middle of the inverters' preferred range.
Very large strings of panels (with high VOC), or very small strings of panels (with quite low VOC) may not be within the inverters' optimum range ("sweet spot") and may show an "unexpected" decline in performance relative to a string of panels with VOC somewhere in the middle of the inverters' preferred range.
So if we have a theoretical inverter of 4kW capacity and with a 200v to 500v operating range, it is likely to be at its absolute most efficient when running at 300v to 400v and 2kW to 3kW total input power.
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So I guess that I'm just suggesting that the recent dull weather could account for some very odd occurrences, when coupled with calibration errors of monitoring devices and when coupled with comparing
gross input against
net output. I can see how weird stuff might happen - but be a "transient" problem once sunnier weather arrives and there's a decent amount of power going into everyone's inverter so that DC:AC conversion losses become relatively insignificant.