You are probably right. I just have an image in my head of a mountain all those thousands of LED floodlights that fail after 6 months use, mixed in with that model of 2 part JCC downlights that lasted half that! But then I'm negative like that! Though this is usually the fault of the manufacturers, running the LEDs at the maximum rated current. If they just reduced the power to the LEDs by a watt or two the LEDs run cooler and will last substantially longer, with only a small reduction in light output.
I know a lot of things are better now than they were a few years back, but it is unlikely the LED lights will outlive a fluorescent fitting with a magnetic ballast. One place we work has a large number of 600x1200 lay in fittings, used 9 hours a day, 7 days a week. The date stamped on the ballasts is 1988. My grandmothers house had 3 working 4' fittings when I rewired it dated 1963.
I also find a lot of LED lighting plain and uninspiring. Some of the light fittings and building lighting designs from the 1930s and 40s were amazing I would love to go back in time to see them in person. I'd also love to see that enormous Ford neon sign at Dagenham while I'm doing some time traveling, installed mid 1930s IIRC. Neon is so cool and glowy.