Anti Dumping Investigations into Chinese Panels

[SRE]

Open letter to EU commissioner

Open letter to the EU Commissioner for Trade | AFASE

 

[balbecdaze]

I just pondered this for a while - Is being anti anti-dumping tax just self-interest? - before coming to the conclusion (as I just put it in an email to Vince Cable) that an anti-dumping tax is gob-smackingly foolish.

However, as I'm not an economist, or expert in world politics, I would like to know what others think.

My "reasoning" is quite simple (if a bit all-over-the-place):

An anti-dumping tax levels the playing field by dragging subsidised chinese manufacturers down to the level of unsubsidised EU manufacturers. Ideally of course we'd just subsidise our manufacturers to a similar level (as if).

It is better to buy local and I'm sure there are more dodgy employment pratices in China than the EU. That's why I get an organic veg box from Riverford, I make a value judgement based on more than just price.

The fundamentals however are that climate change news is never good and we need to bring the cost of renewables down, however we can.

Mucking about with the PV market even more, increasing the price of your average PV system ...

We're all doomed!

 

[balbecdaze]

Oh, I added my name to the open letter by the way and I would encourage others to do the same.

 

[Vegelen]

If Chinese panel manufacturers get hit with an anti dumping tax, Chinese authorities will retaliate by imposing taxes on certain goods entering China.
Production would move elsewhere to a place with low overheads, cheap labour etc.
The EU would then be forced to impose an anti dumping tax on another location.
Would the EU impose anti dumping taxes on all panel imports into the EU to boost European panel manufacturers?
If it did, how much would solar panel prices increase?
In the present economic downturn, many UK solar companies are going bankrupt, influenced by low UK FIT's rates, increasing unemployment and consumer debt.
Inexpensive Chinese solar panels aren't currently stimulating UK demand for solar pv systems.
If solar pv panel hardware prices increase in the UK and Europe, demand for solar pv systems will decrease, leading to further bankruptcies and loss of employment.
The UK solar industry is currently in dire straits and requires stimulus.
The European Union needs to encourage economic development / the adoption of green technologies.
The UK energy system requires significant investment to update an aging infrastructure.
Green energy technologies are complimentary energy investments.
If more people adopt solar pv, energy generation becomes more efficient / localised alleviating stress on the UK's energy network.
I fear the European Union is going to do the opposite - increase taxes on green energy products / introduce anti dumping taxes etc, making fossil fuels more competitive because of lobbying from large energy companies.
Long term, the most efficient economies will have the most diverse and sustainable energy networks. Competitive energy networks, facilitate competitive economies.

 

[balbecdaze]

Like wot I said

 

[moggy1968]

I think allowing the Chinese Government to subsidise their panels to undercut everyone else is a short term measure to enable them to dominate the market. Once they have that domination they will then control the market and the price.
Allowing this situation to continue in order to provide cheap solar is a short sighted policy. In the long term it will lead to domination of the market by the chinese and consequently more expensive systems. Supporting cheap panels now is an eat today starve tomorrow policy. The long term health of the solar insustry can only be through protection of other nations manufacturing by the imposition of duties on subsidised chinese imports. This is in the long term interests of the industry as a whole and future investment in environmental technologies.

I think the likely increase in panel prices will be in the order of 15-20%, equivalent to an increase of well under 10% on the actual installed price.

VAT is much more of an issue, with a potential rise of 15% on the whole job price. This is where we should be concentrating our efforts. A VAT figure of 5% on renewables encourages the installation of renewables with no adverse influence on manufacturers and consequently encourages R&D into future technologies.

It just means the Government can't shove quite as much cake in it's collective mouth!

 

[SRE]

I'm undecided about this too. As Moggy says it's a short term solution if the issue was dropped. But I won't survive another Winter if the prices go up and demand reduces as we expect it to - so where is the govt with the increase in Fit that would help us all out until the market stabilises a bit. I'm quite sick of this particular rollercoaster!

 

[Vegelen]

The Chinese economy has grown from being smaller than the French economy, to 3 times larger, In the last 5-10 years.
They focus on delivering products at competitive prices undercutting world markets.
People buy from them because they are inexpensive.
This is happening on products across the board.
Blocking their domination with trade tariffs will merely create a trade war in which both sides will loose.
Company owners across the EU have consciously closed lots of different companies, shipping manufacture over seas weakening a succession of national economies, increasing unemployment in the European territories, producing goods far cheaper for profit- Capitalist market economics in action.
Now that the Chinese manufacture most goods, it is self evident we progressively become more dependent on them.
Collectively all of us are building the Chinese economy, by the everyday choices and decisions we make.
The European Union needs to start thinking of ways to compete with this model, else suffer the consequences.

 

[Gavin A]

I think allowing the Chinese Government to subsidise their panels to undercut everyone else is a short term measure to enable them to dominate the market. Once they have that domination they will then control the market and the price.
Allowing this situation to continue in order to provide cheap solar is a short sighted policy. In the long term it will lead to domination of the market by the chinese and consequently more expensive systems. Supporting cheap panels now is an eat today starve tomorrow policy. The long term health of the solar insustry can only be through protection of other nations manufacturing by the imposition of duties on subsidised chinese imports. This is in the long term interests of the industry as a whole and future investment in environmental technologies.

I think the likely increase in panel prices will be in the order of 15-20%, equivalent to an increase of well under 10% on the actual installed price.

VAT is much more of an issue, with a potential rise of 15% on the whole job price. This is where we should be concentrating our efforts. A VAT figure of 5% on renewables encourages the installation of renewables with no adverse influence on manufacturers and consequently encourages R&D into future technologies.

It just means the Government can't shove quite as much cake in it's collective mouth!

I can't think of any other industry where the Chinese dominate where this is the case.

There are always enough other low cost producers to keep them in check IME

 

[whinmoor]

Recent story of a manufacturer moving production back to UK from China due to rising labour costs over there. It could be that the worm is turning...

BBC News - Symington's moves Chinese noodle work to Leeds

That industry might not be as technical or specialist as solar so I'd expect that the workers in Chinese solar factories would be more skilled and better paid than their counterparts making noodles. Probably noodle factories are not subsidised by Beijing!

 

[Gavin A]

worth remembering in all this that the chinese invested billions of dollars in building these massive solar plants in order specifically to drive costs down in the industry, and to meet the demand growth predicted from Europe and elsewhere in order to meet EU countries stated renewables targets etc. following a period in 2009-10 where the global manufacturing capacity for solar PV simply couldn't keep up with demand, and for a time it was virtually impossible to even buy both panels and inverters in the UK.

The only reason the Chinese have hit these problems and ended up having to extend financial support to their companies is because the EU countries all unilaterally slashed their FIT rates through 2011-12 because of the spread of the lunacy that is 'austerity' policies, and a complete misunderstanding of economics and the short and long term benefits of solar PV.

Without these actions, the Chinese would not have had to prop up the industry they'd just invested billions in, and EU manufacturers would still be in business.

SO the EU should be looking to itself for causing these problems, rather than blaming the Chinese for doing what they needed to do to prevent their massive investment in solar from immediately going into massive nationwide bankruptcies that would have taken down several state owned banks in the process.

 

[Vegelen]

Mistakes were made on both sides.
Too many Chinese companies aggressively entered the market investing billions in large factories, increasing short term production to unsustainable levels.
Many EU governments underestimated how quickly the solar market would grow, after stimulating interest in it.
When it did start growing FITS rates were set high, partly due to high solar hardware costs.
Many governments didn't foresee how quickly solar hardware costs would fall, nor did they anticipate how many installations would occur and their associated long term cost implications.
When they did start to realise, they panicked slashing feed in tarif rates from unsustainably high to excessively low levels, causing an industry with a bright future to uneccessarily collapse.
Lets hope out of all these mistakes a brighter more stable, sustainable, long term solar future emerges.
But if it is to happen, politicians need to stop making lots of short term, rash decisions and revert to making sensible, long term decisions that everyone can plan a future with.

 

[Gavin A]

can't disagree with any of that.

 

[Earthstore]

One thing is though, whether right or wrong in the world markets at least the Chinese government support their industry and country, some may not agree with how they do achieve their growth, but hell they have grown some in my lifetime, compare that to how we are doing in the EU, many politicians having a great lifestyle (or prison..), while the countries they represent are almost bankrupt, with populations struggling to survive.

So who is wrong here?

 

[Gavin A]

we are.

Neoliberalism is a failing ideology, always was doomed to failure really, but it comes to something when the capitalist west has to be shown how capitalism works best by a still nominally communist China.

 

[Earthstore]

we are.

Neoliberalism is a failing ideology, always was doomed to failure really, but it comes to something when the capitalist west has to be shown how capitalism works best by a still nominally communist China.

Hell Gavin, had to read that three or four times to get the gist of it, but you are right, the problem is our powers to be just can not see it, "let's tax um that'll stop um", will it hell as like....

 

[balbecdaze]

Interesting stuff, I find myself agreeing to/being educated by all the above posts. Even when they disagree with each other.

Bit gloomy though.

 

[moggy1968]

worth remembering in all this that the chinese invested billions of dollars in building these massive solar plants in order specifically to drive costs down in the industry, and to meet the demand growth predicted from Europe and elsewhere in order to meet EU countries stated renewables targets etc. following a period in 2009-10 where the global manufacturing capacity for solar PV simply couldn't keep up with demand, and for a time it was virtually impossible to even buy both panels and inverters in the UK.

The only reason the Chinese have hit these problems and ended up having to extend financial support to their companies is because the EU countries all unilaterally slashed their FIT rates through 2011-12 because of the spread of the lunacy that is 'austerity' policies, and a complete misunderstanding of economics and the short and long term benefits of solar PV.

Without these actions, the Chinese would not have had to prop up the industry they'd just invested billions in, and EU manufacturers would still be in business.

SO the EU should be looking to itself for causing these problems, rather than blaming the Chinese for doing what they needed to do to prevent their massive investment in solar from immediately going into massive nationwide bankruptcies that would have taken down several state owned banks in the process.

Gavin, the shortage of panels wasn't caused my an insufficient number being manufactured, it was caused by Europe being emptied of stock and because of the time frame the government gave us there was not sufficient time to ship more panels from china. Lets not forget the UK alone consumed 18months+ of kit in 5 weeks

The chinese have subsidisaed their solar industry since inception, not since the drop in demand.
Their aim is to dominate the market by driving all other manufacturers out of business.

 

[Gavin A]

Gavin, the shortage of panels wasn't caused my an insufficient number being manufactured, it was caused by Europe being emptied of stock and because of the time frame the government gave us there was not sufficient time to ship more panels from china. Lets not forget the UK alone consumed 18months+ of kit in 5 weeks

The chinese have subsidisaed their solar industry since inception, not since the drop in demand.
Their aim is to dominate the market by driving all other manufacturers out of business.

Wrong time frame, I'm talking Spring / summer 2010, when a rush to beat a German FIT cut basically cleaned out the entire global supply chain, with European market growth of 169% from 2009-2010 to 14.8GWp in 2010.

But since 2010 the European market has only increased to 16.48GW in 2012, which is only around 5% growth per year, which is a phenomenal reduction from 169% increase just one year earlier.

It's this massive sudden drop of in the growth rate of the European market that's really to blame for the massive over supply situation in the global market. It takes something like 18-24 months to bring new plant online, so the plant being ordered in 2010 during a massive upsurge in demand from Europe, which Europe was stating it intended to sustain in order to meet it's renewable energy targets, was then being brought online in late 2011 and 2012, just as European market growth was slowing to a virtual standstill after swinging austerity induced tariff cuts.

China has actually done a hell of a lot to stimulate it's own domestic demand to attempt to compensate for this, and will probably overtake Germany as the world's biggest consumer of solar PV this year from virtually nothing 3-4 years ago, yet the EU have determined that it's all China's fault.

It's the EU / European Government that have directly caused this problem, not the Chinese who're just trying to stop their manufacturers and the banks that have funded them from going bust in light of dramatic U turns in EU policies. Maybe the EU should have stepped in to support actual EU industry instead of the banks, then this wouldn't be an issue.

 

[moggy1968]

Ah Gotcha!:chinese:

 

[Gavin A]

the Americans really didn't help the situation either by raising the drawbridge last year, resulting in even more of the chinese over capacity ending up being dumped in Europe rather than being split more evenly across both continents.

This graph also demonstrates the issue last year quite well, with a huge level of demand in Q4 of 2011 that was never matched in any quarter in 2012, but manufacturers ramped up production in Q3 in anticipation of the expected surge in demand in Q3 and 4 that had been there for the last few years, only to find that it didn't happen at all in Q3, which was the lowest demand out of all 4 quarters, and Q4 was 2GW lower than Q4 in 2011, so the manufacturers ended up stuck with massive stock piles of unsold panels, while wholesalers around the world reduced their stocking levels to exacerbate the problem for the manufacturers.

 

[Worcester]

These are the key words in the UK's Document : HM Revenue & Customs

"Registration shall expire 9 months from 06/06/2013. At the end of the registration, anti-dumping duty &/or countervailing duty may be applied retrospectively to the relevant goods imported, during the whole of this 9 months period."

I've put a call in to HMRC and am stilll awaiting their explanation - anyone else care to interpret what happens to panels imported between now and 06/06/2013 ?

 

[Earthstore]

The way I read that is they have to be registered from the 6/6/2013, then they may tax them back to this date, so maybe they won't tax them...
How the hell will that work then? Sorry Mr Smith but that PV system we fitted 9 months ago has been retrospectively taxed by the Government so you owe us more dosh!

 

[Worcester]

Who pays? - I know that bit!
It's the importer - i.e. the person that pays the VAT when it clears customs that will get the retrospective duty invoice .....

Wether they will or can pass that on is up to what your contract with your client says ...

 

[Earthstore]

Ah, never thought of that.

So could someone set up a new company, say PV Panel Imports (PPI, well it's got a ring to it)
then close it all down after 8.5 months, to reduce one's risk?

 

[solarfred]

I can confirm that the extra cost is imposed retroactively from the date of registration. Anyone importing goods that land in UK after the date of registration will incur any duty imposed retroactively from that date. The duty amount will not be known until the consultation period expires in June. If the decision is to impose the duty then all those goods listed from the date of registration will be billed for the extra duty whatever that may be. The bill will be issued in June and the payment deadline is December 2013.
If you, as a wholesale buyer, bought say $50,000 worth of solar panels in January and they were steaming up the English Channel in early March having completed the standard 4-6 weeks shipping time, the deadline for imposing the registration period is instantaneous. If your goods are on the water all paid for and you have pre-sold those goods then you will have to cover any duty added retroactively. If those goods have not cleared customs before the deadline (which you did not know about) then they will be liable for any duty imposed.
I was talking to the DTI rep in Brussels 12 hours before the deadline was imposed and he told me it would be at least 2-3 days before any decision was made. He also promised me a transcript of the meeting.(ha, ha).
Therefore no new orders are being placed from China - job done. If anyone can cover a bottom line hit of +20% then they are doing well.
Problem is that the local EU market will just increase prices to match so no real benefit.
The HMRC and the UK government have no interest in the survival of small business in the UK.(£35 million in phone calls hanging on for HMRC will suggest that is true). All their jobs are short term with guaranteed pensions. The Chinese have big ambitions and their government will use their huge labour force to ensure they are successful. That labour force does not live in expectation of any favours. Look who is winning. There are 62 millon people in the UK - a tiny pin ----- in the world economy. If we are not producing and now not buying we are pretty impotent.

 

[frenchbruce]

Good comments...as in Europe, here in NZ, power companies are moving to reduce their initial FIT offerings....maybe simply because they perceive a risk to their income if the solar energy uptake by consumers really starts to gather momentum.
As for the US instigating a tax on Chinese panels..well that's a case of them shooting themselves in both feet at once. With all their resources, smart factories, robotics etc, the US can't produce a reasonably priced PV product and export it to the world. Ironically the Chinese purchase 60% of their raw silicon ingot requirements from the US..slice them and manufacture the panels, using German technology, and then provide a consumer product TUV certified to EU standards. We owe the Chinese for at least giving the use of PV energy the push that really was required....& they will recover after this current period of factory rationalisation. The future still looks good, because of their national commitment to the domestic consumption of both on grid & off grid PV power generation within China, coupled with increased demand from Asia ( NZ & Australia included).

 

[Earthstore]

I do wonder if it is lawful to tax something retrospectively, even if there is a cut off date and the consolation is after that date.
Of course the governmant can do what they like, however they do have a few court cases and appeals that were proved unlawful re the FIT scheme, remember that one, and this sounds the same.

 

[solarfred]

This is an EU initiative to protect EU production lines it is not a UK decision.We have to abide by the EU law like it or not. They could have decided to say that anything "on the water" would not be retro actively taxed as then you have a choice whether to take the risk or not. By taxing goods after they already left the port of discharge is a "screw you" policy and I find it really difficult to support our government when they are prepared to give that kind of "support" to the UK businesses. They were in the negotiations in Brussels but did not impose this simple remedy for the few orders that were between here and China on the day. No bank finance and now they can basically impose a tax that you can do nothing about. Is anybody in government actually interested in the small businesses? Don't think so.

 

[Vegelen]

We have to abide by EU law like it or not.

That is what the honest, law abiding Cypriots thought before looking down the barrell of an EU gun.
The "European Socialist Turd" is now actively trying to steal money from ordinary, law abiding Cypriot citizens as a collective punishment, for the misdemeanours of the Cypriot banking community and its leaders.
The European Union knows that lots of illicit Russian money has been laundered into Cypriot banks by Russian crooks.
They also know who's responsible in Cyprus for the Cypriot banking crisis.
Yet not one banker, trader, businessman or politican is arrested in Cyprus, for their illegality.
The "European Socialist Turd" resolves its problems by pistol whipping ordinary, law abiding Cypriots, collectively punishing them for misdemeanors of the chosen few.
The irony of this situation is, if they can do it to them, it is only a matter of time before they do it to us.
Cyprus had a government depositor protection scheme, designed to assure Cypriot residents that depositing money is safe.
But they've come to realise that scheme was a deception, to encourage them to hand money over to crooks, who misused their cash, causing their banking system to collapse.
How does the "European Socialist Turd" deal with its internal problems?
It steals savings from the majority, to pay the debts of the minority.
Whilst knowing that lots of illegal, illicit, landered Russian money is sitting in Cypruses banks.

 

[solarfred]

"Yet not one banker, trader, businessman or politician is arrested in Cyprus, for their illegality."

Same thing in Ireland. Bankers acting illegally and a finance minister with months to live were left to run the economy and accept the debt of all the failing property companies on behalf of the Irish people. No one has been prosecuted and the people are expected to pay it all back. They are taxing everything that is not nailed down.
​

 

[Worcester]

Good chats with the key people in the the various Govt departments, I now have the names and direct dial number sof all the key people!

1) the 6 June date in the notice is a typo.
2) It applies to all panels brought in after 5th March 2013
3) They have untill 6th December 2013 (9 months) to decide wether to impose an ADD import duty, if they do it will apply to all panels brought in since 5th March. It's EU wide and no local duty levels are allowed...
4) It could be up to 70% duty on import price

5) They could have applied it for a 15 month perios - that is more usual...

What MIGHT HAPPEN is this (and why the June date is of interest....) according to key sources, this is the most likely approach.

That from a date of around about the 6th June they impose a provisional duty on all panels brought in AFTER that date, in that case it isn't appplied retrospectiviely, so those panels brought in between 5th March and that date are then clear of any liability for retrospective duty.

A provisional duty is a frequently used measure, and is usually done without the registration requirement, the problem is that people get to hear about it and so take avoidance measures. By applying the registration criteria, they effectively block the avoidance measures.

So still all up in the air, though we may know something more robust in early June...

 

[solarfred]

Either they know what they are doing and have cleverly stopped the imports in their tracks or they do not have a clue and we are supposed to understand the options. I spoke to the government and HMRC and was misled. The consultation period ends in June and any duty imposed has to be paid by December.Duty will be provisionally imposed from the registration date 5th March. The decision is made in June as that is the end of consultation period required from the original complaint. They imposed the registration date to stop any stockpiling. The end effect is the same - no imports.
Trouble is they will have to do it all again to stop the imports from all the potential places where the manufacturers will "relocate" . Are they really going to do this? Let's hope not and we can all get on with business as usual.

 

[moggy1968]

just for a while it would be nice to be able to work in this industry without worrying about those muppetts in authority moving the goal posts and dropping you in it.
It's a xxxxxxx shambles!!!