Who is doing all the installs?

[SolarCity]

I was speaking to a PV installer in our wholesalers earlier today who claimed that as much as 75% of all the installs carried out in April were done by rent-a-roof firms. I asked him how he knew this and he told me that he had been told by someone at MCS. I don't know how true this is but if it is true then we have got major problems.

If the industry has only managed to convince 25% of all the installs done in April that paying for solar is a good idea, then we really are going to be struggling.

Solar can work at 21p so why aren't the public going for it?

 

[Somecamel]

I don't doubt this one bit- The Rent a roof brigade are back on the Radio in my area pushing free solar.

On a side note, I was approached by a company that wanted me to market it for them but I don't have the concious to do it.

 

[solarsavings]

Solar can work at 21p so why aren't the public going for it?

Because of the stinking lying government we now have. This lot told/tell more lies than the last lot, how the hell is that possible?

 

[SolarCity]

I hate the way that they avoid straightforward questions. Greg Barker ignores any straight questions about PV.

 

[grandfortune]

Well i know of a group of people with 200 million to invest looking for installers

 

[moggy1968]

I'm very suprised the rent a roofers are still going given their reduced rate

 

[Somecamel]

I'm not- Prices are down and returns are back at what they were in November

 

[moggy1968]

but they aren't even getting 21p are they?

 

[Somecamel]

With my 4kW quotes I'm coming in with Returns on SAP of 15%, even if they are losing 20% of the FIT, it still makes sense for them.

They caused this mess in the first place and they're the ones that are still coining it in

 

[Earthstore]

but they aren't even getting 21p are they?

Only if they are doing up to 25 installs I believe.
My guess is there are now a lot of small rent a roof companies, all with 24 installs.

 

[mogga]

If the industry has only managed to convince 25% of all the installs done in April that paying for solar is a good idea, then we really are going to be struggling.

Solar can work at 21p so why aren't the public going for it?

I wouldnt "go for it " due to a number of reasons
1 I like my roof looking like it was designed to look
2 the government issue and their moving goalposts
3 If I go to sell the house will it add value or be seen as just another fitting ( how will money side work if,when I move)

 

[sedgy34]

PERCEPTION of the consumer is the problem they think irts not worth bothering with only the rich people in the city making more money by long term investment FREE SOLAR
we followed a couple of leads up last week, they said on the phone OHHH ITS NOT FREE THEN they are and will kill the industry

 

[Eco Deal]

With my 4kW quotes I'm coming in with Returns on SAP of 15%, even if they are losing 20% of the FIT, it still makes sense for them.

They caused this mess in the first place and they're the ones that are still coining it in

wow thats a great ROI are they your prices?

 

[Somecamel]

£7400 for a 4kW at the moment

Edit:- Tempted to put them up though, ridiculous return to be fair and they're not even selling at that

 

[snowhead]

I wouldnt "go for it " due to a number of reasons

1 I like my roof looking like it was designed to look
2 the government issue and their moving goalposts
3 If I go to sell the house will it add value or be seen as just another fitting ( how will money side work if,when I move)

Exactly my thoughts as well, I wouldn't touch it.

And I wouldn't buy a house with it on.

In 10 years time, maybe.

 

[sambotc]

Thats still a 12% return at 16p and under 10 year payback

or 11% and 13p and 10 year payback

Plus hopefully the prices coming down will open up a bit more of a margin for the installers once/if the uptake increases.

so it is perfectly viable long term and more affordable to the majority (and not just the retired lot who won't even be around in 25years!)

It's persuading the customer it's a safe place to put their money thats the hard part. Maybe everybody should be slightly more upbeat about it on the public forums as well as it doesn't help raising confidence! (not being funny)

 

[timo1]

I thought solar was no longer worth it (not really knowing anything about the industry) until it was explained to me that the investment is still the same i.e initially a 4kw system 10 - 12k to fit, now the same system can cost you half as much which makes your return more or less the same. May seem overly simplistic but would convince me. I had no idea that there was a 25yr guarantee on some panels - I still think there is a lot to offer a customer.

 

[sedgy34]

Thats still a 12% return at 16p and under 10 year payback

or 11% and 13p and 10 year payback

Plus hopefully the prices coming down will open up a bit more of a margin for the installers once/if the uptake increases.

so it is perfectly viable long term and more affordable to the majority (and not just the retired lot who won't even be around in 25years!)

It's persuading the customer it's a safe place to put their money thats the hard part. Maybe everybody should be slightly more upbeat about it on the public forums as well as it doesn't help raising confidence! (not being funny)

its the 10 yr payback thats the killer now

 

[moggy1968]

no reason why it shoiuld be though. 10 years is reasonable. It's the Governments stated payback times I'm dreading!!
Also I don't know how long the industry can support these prices, a number of manufacturers have gone under recently. I know the market is bigger than just the UK but the manufacturers seem to be discounting themselves to death (except the chinese maybe!!)

 

[sedgy34]

you try telling a potential customer that

 

[sambotc]

Any less than 10 years and it attracts the greedy investors etc who will manipulate the market again and cause another crash in FIT payments. The deployment rate has to be positive but steady for it to work for the smaller firms to earn a living.

 

[snowhead]

Anyone remember Stone Cladding??
Seemed a good idea to a lot of people at the time.

 

[sambotc]

as for the manufacturers going bust, that's the boom and bust we were trying to avoid I guess? To many trying to get rich quick taking big risks for big returns. How many manufacturers make LCD t.v's? Far less than their are PV panel suppliers, yet nearly every home has at least 1 LCD t.v in these days?

 

[finchy]

It's madness trying to get the message out to customers:

a- its half the price than a year ago
b-its half the fit rate (bar a couple pence)
therfore the same return if not better as your not tying up so much cash !!

Our market should have increased ....

We need some positive headlines from the govnt supporting it!

Im lucky that we are a diverse business but I certainly would be in trouble if this was my sole business. (Everyone needs windows ... Only joking ..)

 

[SolarCity]

To be totally honest, I don't think prices are half of what they were a year ago. The reason that it is still viable despite the halving of the FIT is that electricity prices are still the same. This, however, doesn't help rent-a-roof firms. Whichever way you look at it, the returns for these firms aren't what they were a few months ago.

The fact that they ARE still viable means that customers just haven't got the message.

 

[SRE]

We need a six month settling in period to re-build business and customer awareness. Our sole business is solar and we're just about getting through because we were very careful last year, but another cut will be devastating and we're expecting to be very quiet through the winter anyway because there's no real incentive to get anything installed when the generation is so low. So the new business model is really about capitalising on 8 months a year when solar is preceived to be viable. A cut delayed until just before Christmas would allow us to generate enough funds to see us over the winter - otherwise it's curtains for us!

 

[FB.]

As a professional investor, my analysis says that 4kW for £7400 is "worth", to me, RPI+4% per year.
So about 7-8% if inflation remains around the Bank's target of 3-4%. Proportionately more if inflation turns out to be higher.

But bickering over the level of returns put to one side: solar is still a good investment which, on a risk/return-adjusted basis, beats just about anything else available at the moment (as I stated yesterday on another topic).

A relative of mine has recently received a similar quote for £7-something for 4kWp, and their illustration claims about 12% return. I regard it as more like RPI+3%; about 6-7% annually if inflation averages 3-4%.

 

[FB.]

For what it's worth, I suspect the significant upfront cash outlay, which people can't get back, is also a deterrent to many who might like solar, but worry that they might need their rainy-day money for an emergency in these tough times.
With solar, the really big returns are back-end-loaded after many years of inflation have raised the FiT and bill savings.

So it does rather favour the well-off, or the rent-a-roofers.

 

[FB.]

a- its half the price than a year ago
b-its half the fit rate (bar a couple pence)

Actually, it's slightly better than that :wink_smile::

a - half the price
b - half the FiT rate
c - same bill savings

 

[SRE]

Your RPI + 3-4% is interesting the best investment linked to RPI I can get at the minute is 0.5% tied up for 5 years. Solar wins hands down.

 

[provr6]

I don't agree that the price of solar has halved, especially if you are talking less than 4kw. It has reduced significantly but not by half, can you get £4kw installed for £5k inclusive of scaffolding with a decent inverter and mid range panels?

Its all very well saying that the ROI is higher than anything in a bank, yes it is, but the bank is a 100% sure thing whereas during the 25 years things may go wrong with the panels/inverters etc and thereby reduce the ROI.

Hopefully that won't happy to the majority but it damn sure will happen to some.

Also, I think there is a large element of customers who were considering solar are angry they have missed out on the higher tarrif and think **** the Gov't, I won't bother now.

I price a lot of new housing and more and more the employers are stating they do not want PV installed as a renewable technolgy.

 

[SRE]

Every new property should be built with integrated renewables as standard - it shouldn't be a choice. Although the new build market is tiny it would help to raise aspirations and normalise the installation of renewables in older properties.

As far as banks are concerned - no-one expected money in Iceland to disappear or Lehmans to go bust, so nothing is certain.

 

[SolarCity]

Every new property should be built with integrated renewables as standard - it shouldn't be a choice.

Strongly agree. And not just a token 2kWp either. Homes should be built with south facing roofs, unshaded by neighbours nor chimneys, and covered with integrated panels or tiles.

 

[Earthstore]

As I understand, new builds have to have some renewable technologies installed, so the builders just chose the cheapest so they conform. if they can install a solar thermal for say $2K and it means the right boxes have been ticked, why would they pay say £5K for a PV system?
I have seen a small new estate with a few panels fitted to every house, roofs pointing in all directions, systems shaded, but I guess they have ticked the boxes.

 

[SolarRoofSols]

I was speaking to a PV installer in our wholesalers earlier today who claimed that as much as 75% of all the installs carried out in April were done by rent-a-roof firms. I asked him how he knew this and he told me that he had been told by someone at MCS. I don't know how true this is but if it is true then we have got major problems.

I can imagine it is true, I have received emails from at least 4 different companies looking for installers for a rent a roof company, toying with working with 2 of them because we need to get some work in and paying customers are non existent at the moment.

With 1 of the funds, there are 2 draw backs, we need to find customers without mortgages and we need to get the EPC done. The installation fee isn't too bad but throw EPC into the mix and for the few non mortgage homeowners wanting free solar, half of them may not even qualify - but we need to fork out on the EPC to find out.

Solar can work at 21p so why aren't the public going for it?

Don't forget, as well as all of the deary headlines about solar costing your neighbor money through their bills and the 'missed the boat' mentality, we are this week being talked back into recession by the good ole G'vmt and media!

 

[SRE]

We need a plan to change the "missed the boat" mentality, that's the biggest barrier at the minute. How many people are just not ringing because they think it's too late.

Mind you or D challenge is almost as big, but you can't get to the conversation about D rating if they aren't riniging.

 

[finchy]

Start saying Epc to customers they go what ... Best leave that untill they have had a cup of tea and your in the door !

 

[SRE]

Very true but if I'm travelling an hour and a half on country roads I need to know there's a good chance we'll be able to get a D rating. I haven't quite perfected the knck of explaining it simply without the customer "glazing" over. No doubt I'll overcome that with the rush of customers expected any minute now .....

 

[mogga]

4kw for £7800 "why should I buy from you when Direct flooring are quoting £5999 for a 4 kw?" I think its 5999 or it might be 4999 cant make out that mincer claries accent
Theres your problem Firms that can afford to pile them high n sell them cheap best you can hope for is to subby to them

 

[sambotc]

Don't quite agree with that personally Mogga, otherwise everybody would be driving around in Kia's and eating tesco valvue noodles day in day out. I suppose you have to sell your product. Cheaper is always better and many people know that.

What people perceive as value isn't always the cheapest, if you can offer a better service for a little bit more.

No doubt these companies use contractors who get paid a days wage and generally don't really care how it goes in as it has no adverse effect on them. Corners are cut. Also it must be the cheapest gear they can possibly source.

Not tarring all contractors with the same brush but I've been a sub contractor for a big rent a roof company and a lot of the lads I worked with were like that, not me may add!

I once had to go back to a job another subby did, the top row of panels were about 60mm lower than the bottom row with a huge dip in the middle. It looked like an elephant had fallen out of the sky and landed on the array!
I've seen tiles cracked in half horizontally and siliconed back together (not very well either) and even mid clamps that haven't been tightened up and causing the panels to squeek in the wind!

So, if it were me, I'd think very hard before choosing the cheapest option when something is going to be on your roof for 25 years.