Who is doing all the installs?

[sambotc]

Any less than 10 years and it attracts the greedy investors etc who will manipulate the market again and cause another crash in FIT payments. The deployment rate has to be positive but steady for it to work for the smaller firms to earn a living.

 

[snowhead]

Anyone remember Stone Cladding??
Seemed a good idea to a lot of people at the time.

 

[sambotc]

as for the manufacturers going bust, that's the boom and bust we were trying to avoid I guess? To many trying to get rich quick taking big risks for big returns. How many manufacturers make LCD t.v's? Far less than their are PV panel suppliers, yet nearly every home has at least 1 LCD t.v in these days?

 

[finchy]

It's madness trying to get the message out to customers:

a- its half the price than a year ago
b-its half the fit rate (bar a couple pence)
therfore the same return if not better as your not tying up so much cash !!

Our market should have increased ....

We need some positive headlines from the govnt supporting it!

Im lucky that we are a diverse business but I certainly would be in trouble if this was my sole business. (Everyone needs windows ... Only joking ..)

 

[SolarCity]

To be totally honest, I don't think prices are half of what they were a year ago. The reason that it is still viable despite the halving of the FIT is that electricity prices are still the same. This, however, doesn't help rent-a-roof firms. Whichever way you look at it, the returns for these firms aren't what they were a few months ago.

The fact that they ARE still viable means that customers just haven't got the message.

 

[SRE]

We need a six month settling in period to re-build business and customer awareness. Our sole business is solar and we're just about getting through because we were very careful last year, but another cut will be devastating and we're expecting to be very quiet through the winter anyway because there's no real incentive to get anything installed when the generation is so low. So the new business model is really about capitalising on 8 months a year when solar is preceived to be viable. A cut delayed until just before Christmas would allow us to generate enough funds to see us over the winter - otherwise it's curtains for us!

 

[FB.]

As a professional investor, my analysis says that 4kW for £7400 is "worth", to me, RPI+4% per year.
So about 7-8% if inflation remains around the Bank's target of 3-4%. Proportionately more if inflation turns out to be higher.

But bickering over the level of returns put to one side: solar is still a good investment which, on a risk/return-adjusted basis, beats just about anything else available at the moment (as I stated yesterday on another topic).

A relative of mine has recently received a similar quote for £7-something for 4kWp, and their illustration claims about 12% return. I regard it as more like RPI+3%; about 6-7% annually if inflation averages 3-4%.

 

[FB.]

For what it's worth, I suspect the significant upfront cash outlay, which people can't get back, is also a deterrent to many who might like solar, but worry that they might need their rainy-day money for an emergency in these tough times.
With solar, the really big returns are back-end-loaded after many years of inflation have raised the FiT and bill savings.

So it does rather favour the well-off, or the rent-a-roofers.

 

[FB.]

a- its half the price than a year ago
b-its half the fit rate (bar a couple pence)

Actually, it's slightly better than that :wink_smile::

a - half the price
b - half the FiT rate
c - same bill savings

 

[SRE]

Your RPI + 3-4% is interesting the best investment linked to RPI I can get at the minute is 0.5% tied up for 5 years. Solar wins hands down.

 

[provr6]

I don't agree that the price of solar has halved, especially if you are talking less than 4kw. It has reduced significantly but not by half, can you get £4kw installed for £5k inclusive of scaffolding with a decent inverter and mid range panels?

Its all very well saying that the ROI is higher than anything in a bank, yes it is, but the bank is a 100% sure thing whereas during the 25 years things may go wrong with the panels/inverters etc and thereby reduce the ROI.

Hopefully that won't happy to the majority but it damn sure will happen to some.

Also, I think there is a large element of customers who were considering solar are angry they have missed out on the higher tarrif and think **** the Gov't, I won't bother now.

I price a lot of new housing and more and more the employers are stating they do not want PV installed as a renewable technolgy.

 

[SRE]

Every new property should be built with integrated renewables as standard - it shouldn't be a choice. Although the new build market is tiny it would help to raise aspirations and normalise the installation of renewables in older properties.

As far as banks are concerned - no-one expected money in Iceland to disappear or Lehmans to go bust, so nothing is certain.

 

[SolarCity]

Every new property should be built with integrated renewables as standard - it shouldn't be a choice.

Strongly agree. And not just a token 2kWp either. Homes should be built with south facing roofs, unshaded by neighbours nor chimneys, and covered with integrated panels or tiles.

 

[Earthstore]

As I understand, new builds have to have some renewable technologies installed, so the builders just chose the cheapest so they conform. if they can install a solar thermal for say $2K and it means the right boxes have been ticked, why would they pay say £5K for a PV system?
I have seen a small new estate with a few panels fitted to every house, roofs pointing in all directions, systems shaded, but I guess they have ticked the boxes.

 

[SolarRoofSols]

I was speaking to a PV installer in our wholesalers earlier today who claimed that as much as 75% of all the installs carried out in April were done by rent-a-roof firms. I asked him how he knew this and he told me that he had been told by someone at MCS. I don't know how true this is but if it is true then we have got major problems.

I can imagine it is true, I have received emails from at least 4 different companies looking for installers for a rent a roof company, toying with working with 2 of them because we need to get some work in and paying customers are non existent at the moment.

With 1 of the funds, there are 2 draw backs, we need to find customers without mortgages and we need to get the EPC done. The installation fee isn't too bad but throw EPC into the mix and for the few non mortgage homeowners wanting free solar, half of them may not even qualify - but we need to fork out on the EPC to find out.

Solar can work at 21p so why aren't the public going for it?

Don't forget, as well as all of the deary headlines about solar costing your neighbor money through their bills and the 'missed the boat' mentality, we are this week being talked back into recession by the good ole G'vmt and media!

 

[SRE]

We need a plan to change the "missed the boat" mentality, that's the biggest barrier at the minute. How many people are just not ringing because they think it's too late.

Mind you or D challenge is almost as big, but you can't get to the conversation about D rating if they aren't riniging.

 

[finchy]

Start saying Epc to customers they go what ... Best leave that untill they have had a cup of tea and your in the door !

 

[SRE]

Very true but if I'm travelling an hour and a half on country roads I need to know there's a good chance we'll be able to get a D rating. I haven't quite perfected the knck of explaining it simply without the customer "glazing" over. No doubt I'll overcome that with the rush of customers expected any minute now .....

 

[mogga]

4kw for £7800 "why should I buy from you when Direct flooring are quoting £5999 for a 4 kw?" I think its 5999 or it might be 4999 cant make out that mincer claries accent
Theres your problem Firms that can afford to pile them high n sell them cheap best you can hope for is to subby to them

 

[sambotc]

Don't quite agree with that personally Mogga, otherwise everybody would be driving around in Kia's and eating tesco valvue noodles day in day out. I suppose you have to sell your product. Cheaper is always better and many people know that.

What people perceive as value isn't always the cheapest, if you can offer a better service for a little bit more.

No doubt these companies use contractors who get paid a days wage and generally don't really care how it goes in as it has no adverse effect on them. Corners are cut. Also it must be the cheapest gear they can possibly source.

Not tarring all contractors with the same brush but I've been a sub contractor for a big rent a roof company and a lot of the lads I worked with were like that, not me may add!

I once had to go back to a job another subby did, the top row of panels were about 60mm lower than the bottom row with a huge dip in the middle. It looked like an elephant had fallen out of the sky and landed on the array!
I've seen tiles cracked in half horizontally and siliconed back together (not very well either) and even mid clamps that haven't been tightened up and causing the panels to squeek in the wind!

So, if it were me, I'd think very hard before choosing the cheapest option when something is going to be on your roof for 25 years.