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Wilko

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Hi All - just seen a tweet that Our Fearless Leader has tested positive for CV19. Apparently he’s got mild symptoms. I’m sure there’s a joke in there somewhere ...
 
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buzzlightyear

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We will fight them in the streets, we will fight them in the shops, we will never surrender over veg, bog roll, lol.what his symptoms.
 

buzzlightyear

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He will never be a churchhill dog,oh yes.
Some how they must have had a testing kit for him. to see if he is still alive.
 

Baddegg

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Personally I think we need set up a face to face intimate meeting with Boris and Mike Ashley to iron out the sports direct issue and to give mike the answers he wanted regards his employees going to work at the moment...
 

davesparks

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Whilst it is not good that he has caught it, I think it will help the public to understand that this is a real threat and it can affect everybody.
It will also be good to see him isolating, delivering speeches by video call etc.

He and his government have done very well so far in their handling of this situation, taking good heed of their scientific advisors and trying to drive the message home to the public about what needs to be done to help everyone.
 

FatAlan

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Unusual for a cop. And I don't mean a red nose.
Have voted Tory in the past. Never voted labour. Just don’t like being taken for a fool and blatantly lied to by people who are supposedly in public service when others would be sent to prison for doing the same! People are out there ... front line NHS, putting their lives on the line in this crisis with woeful PPE resourcing. Boris may be doing the best he can in the circs and lets hope he is. When the time comes it will be interesting to see if lessons are learned as this will happen again. Funny how you all assume I’m a lilly livered lefty! I’ve spent 30 years locking up (if I’m lucky) lying scumbags! I don’t like hypocritical self interested lying scumbags! I’ll leave the politics now as we have a more serious issue to get through. Take care all.:)
 

littlespark

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I got to disagree there with the “woeful PPE resourcing”
They’ve been run off their feet, using more PPE than is normal and the suppliers have run out.
There just isn’t the manufacturing in place to keep up with demand.
It’s an international problem.
 

Midwest

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Have voted Tory in the past. Never voted labour. Just don’t like being taken for a fool and blatantly lied to by people who are supposedly in public service when others would be sent to prison for doing the same! People are out there ... front line NHS, putting their lives on the line in this crisis with woeful PPE resourcing. Boris may be doing the best he can in the circs and lets hope he is. When the time comes it will be interesting to see if lessons are learned as this will happen again. Funny how you all assume I’m a lilly livered lefty! I’ve spent 30 years locking up (if I’m lucky) lying scumbags! I don’t like hypocritical self interested lying scumbags! I’ll leave the politics now as we have a more serious issue to get through. Take care all.:)
Politicians are all economical with the truth, its part of the nature of the business. Same as bosses can never be honest and speak their mind.

I recall one being honest with me once, talking to me about resourcing levels at peak times. 'Its called risk management; I manage things, you take the risk'. Arse.
 

FatAlan

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I got to disagree there with the “woeful PPE resourcing”
They’ve been run off their feet, using more PPE than is normal and the suppliers have run out.
There just isn’t the manufacturing in place to keep up with demand.
It’s an international problem.
I think you’ll find that the government ignored a 2016 report that stated in such scenarios we would be short of PPE and ventilators. Hindsight is always a wonderful thing and I suppose politics is all about gambling that it won’t happen on our watch!
 

davesparks

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I think you’ll find that the government ignored a 2016 report that stated in such scenarios we would be short of PPE and ventilators. Hindsight is always a wonderful thing and I suppose politics is all about gambling that it won’t happen on our watch!
Did they? You have proof that they ignored it I assume?
How long does all this equipment last in storage, and how much should they spend on equipment, maintainence and storage for the 'just in case supplies'

They could have filled a warehouse with ventilators and oxygen concentrators after that 2016 report and now when they pull them out of storage 4 years later half of them don't work because they've been sat idle for so long.
 
Did they? You have proof that they ignored it I assume?
How long does all this equipment last in storage, and how much should they spend on equipment, maintainence and storage for the 'just in case supplies'

They could have filled a warehouse with ventilators and oxygen concentrators after that 2016 report and now when they pull them out of storage 4 years later half of them don't work because they've been sat idle for so long.
Google "Exercise Cygnus", you should find plenty of information and lead you to your own conclusion as to whether our leaders ignored it. I believe ventilators were not even considered in the report.
 

davesparks

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Google "Exercise Cygnus", you should find plenty of information and lead you to your own conclusion as to whether our leaders ignored it. I believe ventilators were not even considered in the report.
I've googled it and found a lot of media articles about it, which are hardly reliable sources of information.
Other information that I've found indicate that it is just a small part of a much wider plan intended to see the NHS through all manner of possible emergencies, including strikes, far worse viruses than this, major accidents, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, fuel shortages and other things.

When I find proper reports on exercise cygnus I'll read up on it further of course.
 

telectrix

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Did they? You have proof that they ignored it I assume?
How long does all this equipment last in storage, and how much should they spend on equipment, maintainence and storage for the 'just in case supplies'

They could have filled a warehouse with ventilators and oxygen concentrators after that 2016 report and now when they pull them out of storage 4 years later half of them don't work because they've been sat idle for so long.
if they were made by Dyson, they,d be broke 3 days after the 12 months warranty expired anyway.
 
I've googled it and found a lot of media articles about it, which are hardly reliable sources of information.
Other information that I've found indicate that it is just a small part of a much wider plan intended to see the NHS through all manner of possible emergencies, including strikes, far worse viruses than this, major accidents, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, fuel shortages and other things.

When I find proper reports on exercise cygnus I'll read up on it further of course.
Finding official reports seems to be difficult, but here is something that may fit the bill:


P29 is where you want to be looking:
 

davesparks

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Bottom of 29,top of 30 seem to suggest to me that it's not a lack of PPE but a lack of knowledge of the supply chain or how to get the PPE from national stockpiles.
 
Well, the PPE isn't there is it. Switch on the news, you'll soon see yet another healthcare professional testifying to that fact.

It's difficult for me to see the government's response to this in a positive light. We all watched the pandemic grow in China, and their people started dropping like flies, and it spread beyond Chinas borders to other nations where their people started dropping like flies, and then it arrived here, and it spread and we all know what is going to happen. It didn't happen overnight. Any simpleton could have predicted this.

Why did our leaders wait until the pandemic had already taken hold here before taking action? Why did they wait until just 2 weeks ago to request industry start thinking about building ventilators, knowing full well how unprepared the NHS is for this. Why have they ordered 10000 ventilators from a company that doesn't build ventilators, when there are companies that do, and are all ready to do so? Why did they miss the deadline for the EU procurement scheme, blaming it on a communications mix up? Why weren't they stockpiling medicine, PPE, and testing kits back in January?
 

andyb

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I've googled it and found a lot of media articles about it, which are hardly reliable sources of information.
When you say 'media articles' you mean just about every paper out there, including the Tory supporting Sun, Mail, Telegraph and others. Maybe they are not normally the most reliable source generally, and I'm like you I need to check and check before I believe things, especially if it comes from a politician. But unless you are at every cabinet meeting or read every government document then you do have to trust some sources eventually.
Bottom of 29,top of 30 seem to suggest to me that it's not a lack of PPE but a lack of knowledge of the supply chain or how to get the PPE from national stockpiles.
That's just a summary for Rotherham, but you're right, bottom of page 29

1585513724926.png
They've had over 3 years and have failed to do this.
 

davesparks

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Well, the PPE isn't there is it. Switch on the news, you'll soon see yet another healthcare professional testifying to that fact.

It's difficult for me to see the government's response to this in a positive light. We all watched the pandemic grow in China, and their people started dropping like flies, and it spread beyond Chinas borders to other nations where their people started dropping like flies, and then it arrived here, and it spread and we all know what is going to happen. It didn't happen overnight. Any simpleton could have predicted this.

Why did our leaders wait until the pandemic had already taken hold here before taking action? Why did they wait until just 2 weeks ago to request industry start thinking about building ventilators, knowing full well how unprepared the NHS is for this. Why have they ordered 10000 ventilators from a company that doesn't build ventilators, when there are companies that do, and are all ready to do so? Why did they miss the deadline for the EU procurement scheme, blaming it on a communications mix up? Why weren't they stockpiling medicine, PPE, and testing kits back in January?
I don't know if it is there or not, I know that there is a shortage in some places, I don't know where or how widespread the shortage is.

Do we all know what is going to happen? I certainly don't as I cannot see the future, I know what is likely to happen.
A knee jerk reaction trying to force the current lockdown situation a few eeks ago would have been far less effective, after the build up to this many people are still flouting the regulations, looking for loopholes and ways to dodge the rules.
You have to consider the psychology of the general public and what needs to happen for the government to manipulate people into staying at home when they are needed to. A total lockdown out of the blue will be rejected by a lot of people and there simply aren't enough police to enforce it.
They need to build the fear and bring it in gradually otherwise it will not have the desired effect.

I don't know enough about the situation with ventilators, they announced that they were asking industry to produce more a couple of weeks ago, how long before that had they actually started the process? Did they hold back the information from the public to reduce fear and panic.

As far as I know our laboratories created one of the first testing kits back in January, it's pretty hard to stockpile something before it has been invented. The genome of the virus was only published in January, they couldn't do much work on it before that.

What medecine do you suggest they should have stockpiled in January? What medecine did they stockpile?

The studies into the effectiveness of things like hydroxychloroquine aren't complete yet, theyre pushing them through quickly, but studies need to be completed properly.

I believe vaccines were developed within hours of the genome being published but full testing won't be complete for many months yet, they might be done by the end of the year. Testing can't be rushed,
 
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DPG

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As DS says, what medicine do you say they should have been stockpiling in January?
 

andyb

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Who's suggested that they should have stockpiled medicine? no one as far as I'm aware, certainly not me.
Where on earth did that come from?
 

davesparks

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As DS says, what medicine do you say they should have been stockpiling in January?
Well 6 patients given hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin recovered quickly in a study of 30 patients in China which I think was published sometime in February.
Maybe we should have stockpiled that in January?
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Who's suggested that they should have stockpiled medicine? no one as far as I'm aware, certainly not me.
Where on earth did that come from?
Post number 34, last sentence.
 

andyb

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Like I said not me, but you're right it has been suggested and I agree, you can't stockpile medicine for some unknown virus.

But it's still taking away from the point re PPE and letting the government off the hook.
 

DPG

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Like I said not me, but you're right it has been suggested and I agree, you can't stockpile medicine for some unknown virus.

But it's still taking away from the point re PPE and letting the government off the hook.
I know it wasn't you. Dave had replied to PMouth's post.
 

snowhead

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Signing up with the E.U for ventilators would have been pointless.
Guess who would have been at the end of the list for delivery and we'd probably have had to pay up front.

3 years ago or even 1 year ago no one would have known what the infection was going to be and what the appropriate PPE would be for it.

Same with the ventilators, we could have had 10000 in storage when what we actually needed was 10000 kidney dialasis machines.

There are no medicines associated with Covid 19 recovery to have been able to stockpile.

The statement today was that delivery of the following list of PPE has almost been completed to 58000 locations around the U.K including Care homes;

170 million masks, 42.8 million gloves, 13.7 million aprons, 182,000 gowns, almost 10 million items of cleaning equipment and 2.3 million pairs of eye protective equipment.

And presumably deliveries will continue, to top up what's used.
 

davesparks

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Like I said not me, but you're right it has been suggested and I agree, you can't stockpile medicine for some unknown virus.

But it's still taking away from the point re PPE and letting the government off the hook.
OK, so what PPE did they need to stockpile, for a virus they didn't know was coming or what type of infection it would cause?

A couple of months ago headlines about millions of pounds worth of medical face masks reaching the end of their use by date sitting in a warehouse gathering dust would have met with uproar.
How much would 10,000 ventilators in a warehouse having to be tested and maintained for years on end cost?

If the government just stockpiled every piece of lifesaving equipment that might be needed then how much money would it cost? How much would be left in the pot to pay everybody's 80% wages?

How much extra tax would you be happy to pay to fill warehouses with medical equipment that might, or might not, be needed?
 
You're right guys, you've got me there. There is no medicine certified for use against the coronavirus. I was thinking of medicines to treat secondary infections, but I don't really know enough about it to comment. Apologies, and above all else, you are correct.

My post did not say the government needed to stockpile every piece of equipment for every eventuality indefinitely. It said they could see what was coming from January, having watched it all unfold in China, and have had chance to act much sooner.

There is not enough PPE to go round. What is there has been diverted to the NHS, and care homes, nursing homes etc are missing out. Turn on BBC news 24 and sooner or later you will see this.

Also:
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OK, so what PPE did they need to stockpile, for a virus they didn't know was coming or what type of infection it would cause?
PPE! Gloves, masks, hand sanitiser! Generic medical stuff
 
Well, the PPE isn't there is it. Switch on the news, you'll soon see yet another healthcare professional testifying to that fact.

It's difficult for me to see the government's response to this in a positive light. We all watched the pandemic grow in China, and their people started dropping like flies, and it spread beyond Chinas borders to other nations where their people started dropping like flies, and then it arrived here, and it spread and we all know what is going to happen. It didn't happen overnight. Any simpleton could have predicted this.

Why did our leaders wait until the pandemic had already taken hold here before taking action? Why did they wait until just 2 weeks ago to request industry start thinking about building ventilators, knowing full well how unprepared the NHS is for this. Why have they ordered 10000 ventilators from a company that doesn't build ventilators, when there are companies that do, and are all ready to do so? Why did they miss the deadline for the EU procurement scheme, blaming it on a communications mix up? Why weren't they stockpiling medicine, PPE, and testing kits back in January?
Wow... you're a genius !! If only you were running the NHS we wouldn't have any problems at all...

You know far more than all the hundreds of experts that have been brought in over the years to reform an organisation that is so vast and so seeped in it's own culture that it's un-reformable. An organisation that has been put on a pedestal and worshipped by every single politician for the last 30 years... and that pedestal just gets higher and higher...
 
Wow... you're a genius !! If only you were running the NHS we wouldn't have any problems at all...

You know far more than all the hundreds of experts that have been brought in over the years to reform an organisation that is so vast and so seeped in it's own culture that it's un-reformable. An organisation that has been put on a pedestal and worshipped by every single politician for the last 30 years... and that pedestal just gets higher and higher...
Are you serious?
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Do you really think this governments response has been adequate?
 

davesparks

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My post did not say the government needed to stockpile every piece of equipment for every eventuality indefinitely. It said they could see what was coming from January, having watched it all unfold in China, and have had chance to act much sooner.

There is not enough PPE to go round. What is there has been diverted to the NHS, and care homes, nursing homes etc are missing out. Turn on BBC news 24 and sooner or later you will see this

PPE! Gloves, masks, hand sanitiser! Generic medical stuff
Indeed once they knew about the virus they would have started preparing for it, but there is only so much equipment they could source between January and now. Every country would have been doing the same and there will only have been a finite number of units available.

Add to this the fact that it probably all relies on some components which are made in China, which unfortunately was on lockdown.

Is it a lack of PPE or a lack of logistics?

It is impossible for us to know what is going on behind the scenes, but I think the government response so far has been pretty good.
They managed to stockpile enough money to keep the vast majority of the country going whilst a lot of people are not at work.
They had new, broad reaching and complex legislation before parliament so quickly that it must have been thought about and drafted/templated long before this virus was identified.
 

andyb

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Wow... you're a genius !! If only you were running the NHS we wouldn't have any problems at all...

You know far more than all the hundreds of experts that have been brought in over the years to reform an organisation that is so vast and so seeped in it's own culture that it's un-reformable. An organisation that has been put on a pedestal and worshipped by every single politician for the last 30 years... and that pedestal just gets higher and higher...
This is rubbish and abusive.
All Pretty Mouth is doing is pointing out some obvious facts and asking reasonable questions. Just because it doesn't fit your blind narrative and you do not seem to be able to put together a coherent response, that others on here that I also disagree with can do, you post this garbage.
 

davesparks

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Are you serious?
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Do you really think this governments response has been adequate?
The response has been calm, collected, well organised, taken in to account the best scientific advice we have, not over the top.

No it hasn't been perfect, but it could have been a hell of a lot worse.
 
Here are some corona statistics that are worth looking at, 1st the UK, 2nd Germany. Have a close look at them, particularly the total corona cases graph, and the daily new death graph. One major difference between the two countries responses to the pandemic are that Germany is testing way more than we are here.


 
Are you serious?
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Do you really think this governments response has been adequate?
Managing a pandemic is a very very complex task... and goes way beyond ordering 20,000 ventilators. Personally... I wouldn't know where to start... I'd rather have a go at designing the next fighter jet !
 

littlespark

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If the govt had set these lockdown restrictions too early, ie when there was only a handful of cases in the U.K, people would have argued they were overreacting, and not done what was advised.... which is exactly what happened when the lighter restrictions came in.
Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
 
Here are some corona statistics that are worth looking at, 1st the UK, 2nd Germany. Have a close look at them, particularly the total corona cases graph, and the daily new death graph. One major difference between the two countries responses to the pandemic are that Germany is testing way more than we are here.


The number of 'cases' is an utterly irrelevant figure... it is estimated that in the UK there are several million that have either had it or still have it ! And likewise in Germany...
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If the govt had set these lockdown restrictions too early, ie when there was only a handful of cases in the U.K, people would have argued they were overreacting, and not done what was advised.... which is exactly what happened when the lighter restrictions came in.
Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
Agreed... I actually read two stories on the same news site this weekend... one article was banging on about how Boris & co. were getting tested above NHS frontline... and the other article was moaning about why they weren't tested sooner !!
 

davesparks

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Here are some corona statistics that are worth looking at, 1st the UK, 2nd Germany. Have a close look at them, particularly the total corona cases graph, and the daily new death graph. One major difference between the two countries responses to the pandemic are that Germany is testing way more than we are here.


Yes, those statistics are skewed by the fact Germany are obviously testing far more people than we are.
As far as I know we only test the cases which are hospitalised so our statistics will be lower total cases and a higher mortality rate.

My best guess would be that medical staff and laboratories time is better spent working on the serious cases than diagnosing those with mild cases.
 
The number of 'cases' is an utterly irrelevant figure... it is estimated that in the UK there are several million that have either had it or still have it ! And likewise in Germany...
I'm sure you're right. And what of the deaths? Do you think that by only testing people once they have been hospitalised, you are increasing their risk of dying?
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What do the WHO recommend?

 
I'm sure you're right. And what of the deaths? Do you think that by only testing people once they have been hospitalised, you are increasing their risk of dying?
The vast majority of people that have had the virus... have very mild symptoms or none at all. So are you suggesting that we should hospitalise everyone that has it ?

Testing is relevant now to find out who has had it (the antibody test) so that we can carry on without being locked down further.

A doctor was quoted the other day as saying that about ⅔ of all those that have died so far would have died anyway within the year... they were that unwell with other things wrong with them.
 
The vast majority of people that have had the virus... have very mild symptoms or none at all. So are you suggesting that we should hospitalise everyone that has it ?

Testing is relevant now to find out who has had it (the antibody test) so that we can carry on without being locked down further.

A doctor was quoted the other day as saying that about ⅔ of all those that have died so far would have died anyway within the year... they were that unwell with other things wrong with them.
Zerax. I have to ask you, are you being deliberately disingenuous?
 

davesparks

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The vast majority of people that have had the virus... have very mild symptoms or none at all. So are you suggesting that we should hospitalise everyone that has it ?

Testing is relevant now to find out who has had it (the antibody test) so that we can carry on without being locked down further.

A doctor was quoted the other day as saying that about ⅔ of all those that have died so far would have died anyway within the year... they were that unwell with other things wrong with them.
Has a reliable and affordable antibody test been developed and put into mass production yet?
It was mentioned in a press conference the other week that we would be using it when it is available but nothing has been said about it since.

Presumably it is only 2/3 of the patients that one particular doctor has seen, or are there national statistics showing the percentage of people who have died from covid19 who were also likely to die in the next year?
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I think we should be careful about the testing to identify those people who have recovered from it without needing treatment.
It could lead to all manner of issues.
Will employers want to see a positive test result before you are allowed back to work, will children be kept out of school without it? Will people who pass the test feel safe and start to go out and move around despite the fact they will still be able to carry it and spread the disease?
 
The WHO advised as much testing as possible, advise that our government has ignored. Had more testing been carried out, we would have had a better idea of how many people in the UK were infected, and so a better idea on when and how to implement counter measures. Also, had the public been made aware that it was actually far more prevalent than statistics have suggested, we may have adopted social distancing, self isolation etc sooner.

Also, we would have had a better idea of the various 'lesser' symptoms of the virus, and the public could have been advised accordingly.

An article on the government's policy for testing:

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And on the matter of ventilators, the government is smelling decidedly of fish. First they claimed we couldn't join the EU procurement scheme because we are no longer in the EU. Not so, say the EU, Britain was welcome to participate during the transition period. Then the government changed its story, claiming we missed out due to a communication error, again the EU rubbish this claim.

Next, UK companies offer to supply the gov with ventilators, but again the gov missed out due to a lack of response and the ventilators went elsewhere:

Now for some reason the gov have placed an order for 10k ventilators with a company that does not and has never made ventilators, to an unapproved design.
 
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snowhead

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The WHO advised as much testing as possible, advise that our government has ignored.
Who says that what the World Health Organisation say is the right way to go.
Nobody or no organisation in the World has ever experienced a Pandemic.

There have been thousands of simulations and modelling but until real data is fed back into the model and it's re run none will know if what was done was the right thing to do.

The next pandemic may need a different approach to this one.
If every country in the World did exactly the same thing no one would ever know if there was a better way.

Governments would have been inundated with offers to buy equipment, most of them scammers from around the World.
The same 25000 ventilators may have been offered by hundreds of different people who weren't actually in possession of them.

Untill it's all over, if it ever is and a review of what was done is carried out and comparisons made around the World there will be no way of knowing what was right or wrong or a missed opportunity.
 
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Who says that what the World Health Organisation say is the right way to go.
Nobody or no organisation in the World has ever experienced a Pandemic.

There have been thousands of simulations and modelling but until real data is fed back into the model and it's re run none will know if what was done was the right thing to do.

The next pandemic may need a different approach to this one.
If every country in the World did exactly the same thing no one would ever know if there was a better way.

Governments would have been inundated with offers to buy equipment, most of them scammers from around the World.
The same 25000 ventilators may have been offered by hundreds of different people who weren't actually in possession of them.

Untill it's all over, if it ever is and a review of what was done is carried out and comparisons made around the World there will be no way of knowing what was right or wrong or a missed opportunity.
Are you seriously saying that the right thing to do was to ignore the World Health Organisation's advice to test as much as possible, in favour of minimal testing? How do you imagine that could possibly have been a better option?
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Let's wheel out the statistics again:


Germany have followed WHO recommendations and are testing as much as possible. 1st confirmed case 26 January. Total confirmed cases to date 62,435. Total deaths 541, or 6 per 1m population.

UK ignored WHO recommendations. 1st confirmed case Jan 30. Total cases so far 19,522. Total deaths 1,228, or 18 per 1m population.

Italy, also ignored WHO recommendations... need I go on?
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DPG

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The difference between 6 in 1000000 and 18 in 1000000 is tiny in statistical terms though.
 

snowhead

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Are you seriously saying that the right thing to do was to ignore the World Health Organisation's advice to test as much as possible, in favour of minimal testing? How do you imagine that could possibly have been a better option?
I'm saying exactly what I put.
No one knows what is or isn't the best way in this pandemic generally and that includes WHO.
No one knows what is or isn't the best way in any specific Country.

No one will know what was or wasn't the right way till afterwards and then it'll be very hard to confirm one way or the other.

Before the wheel was invented / discovered if the WHO had been around and had said all wheels must be square would you just have accepted that.

As has been said by many others, testing the general population for infection is pointless once the virus is out there.
 

DPG

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Well actually it's 3 times the amount DPG, 20 000 deaths or 60 000 deaths. No tiny really.
Well actually it's 3 times the amount DPG, 20 000 deaths or 60 000 deaths. Not tiny really.
Well yes I get that. But look at the percentage difference that large scale testing has made. It's at a level where you couldn't even be sure that it was the testing that caused it, or just natural variation.
 
Are you seriously saying that the right thing to do was to ignore the World Health Organisation's advice to test as much as possible, in favour of minimal testing? How do you imagine that could possibly have been a better option?
As I've said before... managing a pandemic is an incredibly complex thing... there is no right or wrong way to do it. The approach taken by Sweden, may prove to be the right approach... only time will tell.

The testing that's needed is not to identify those that have it... but those that have had it.
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Well actually it's 3 times the amount DPG, 20 000 deaths or 60 000 deaths. Not tiny really.
Well... you need to put that in the context of a normal UK death rate of about 500,000 per year... added to which, they reckon that ⅔ of those that are dying of the virus would have died anyway within the year.

I realise that even one death is not good, especially if it's someone we know... but you sometimes need to look at these things from a distance, on the macro level.
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As has been said by many others, testing the general population for infection is pointless once the virus is out there.
Agreed... we know that this virus spreads rapidly... (the R0 is about 2-3 compared with 1.3 for a seasonal flu virus). I know I've had it... and so have all those around me.
 
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andyb

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Arms
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Well... you need to put that in the context of a normal UK death rate of about 500,000 per year... added to which, they reckon that ⅔ of those that are dying of the virus would have died anyway within the year.
You really doesn't Zerax, if by doing something 40 000 less people die then obviously 2/3 of these people were not going to die anyway. It is a real saving of 40 000 lives. Your example will hold true for the 1st 20 000 of the 60 000 only.
 
I'm saying exactly what I put.
No one knows what is or isn't the best way in this pandemic generally and that includes WHO.
No one knows what is or isn't the best way in any specific Country.

No one will know what was or wasn't the right way till afterwards and then it'll be very hard to confirm one way or the other.
You appear to be arguing that, in the absence of absolute knowledge of the future, we can reasonably ignore the world's experts' best advice on this matter, and literally any course of action taken by our leaders can be deemed to be correct because of the absence of said knowledge. Please confirm.

Before the wheel was invented / discovered if the WHO had been around and had said all wheels must be square would you just have accepted that.
This is not a reasonable argument, this is just a silly comment.

As has been said by many others, testing the general population for infection is pointless once the virus is out there.
I think this may be known as a straw man fallacy, we've had a few of these now. Backed up by other experts on the forum no less.

Do you think testing those most at risk, doctors, nurses, other healthcare professionals, those that live and have come into contact with those infected, would be a completely pointless exercise?
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Well... you need to put that in the context of a normal UK death rate of about 500,000 per year... added to which, they reckon that ⅔ of those that are dying of the virus would have died anyway within the year.

I realise that even one death is not good, especially if it's someone we know... but you sometimes need to look at these things from a distance, on the macro level.
That's reassuring to know Zerax.
 
Do you think testing those most at risk, doctors, nurses, other healthcare professionals, those that live and have come into contact with those infected, would be a completely pointless exercise?
OK... let's run with this... so we test Alan, Betty, Charlie, Doris, Ethel, Fred and Ginger. All of them are doctors. As of 3 days ago (when samples were taken), Ethel, Fred and Ginger have just come back as positive. All 3 have very mild or no symptoms.

Now what ??
 
OK... let's run with this... so we test Alan, Betty, Charlie, Doris, Ethel, Fred and Ginger. All of them are doctors. As of 3 days ago (when samples were taken), Ethel, Fred and Ginger have just come back as positive. All 3 have very mild or no symptoms.

Now what ??
Cut to the chase Zerax, if you have an intelligent point to make, please make it.
 

andyb

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Arms
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OK... let's run with this... so we test Alan, Betty, Charlie, Doris, Ethel, Fred and Ginger. All of them are doctors. As of 3 days ago (when samples were taken), Ethel, Fred and Ginger have just come back as positive. All 3 have very mild or no symptoms.

Now what ??
Obviously Ethel, Fred and Ginger do not go to work.
The others however can, even if one of them had cold like symptons. Without testing any one having cold symptons have to self isolate for 7 days, if a test shows they do not have covid-19 then they don't have too.
 
Obviously Ethel, Fred and Ginger do not go to work.
The others however can, even if one of them had cold like symptons. Without testing any one having cold symptons have to self isolate for 7 days, if a test shows they do not have covid-19 then they don't have too.
But hang on... E, F & G are the ones that are good to work... because they have the antibodies... and the patients they are treating already have the virus, otherwise they wouldn't be patients.

Some of A, B, C & D almost certainly already have the virus, as the tests were done 3 days ago and they've been working with E, F & G and we know that it spreads very easily.

Might be best to quarantine A, B, C & D and retest them every day for the next week... to see who hasn't got the virus. Any that do have it can work alongside E, F & G ??

It's complicated...
 

andyb

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But hang on... E, F & G are the ones that are good to work... because they have the antibodies... and the patients they are treating already have the virus, otherwise they wouldn't be patients.

Some of A, B, C & D almost certainly already have the virus, as the tests were done 3 days ago and they've been working with E, F & G and we know that it spreads very easily.

Might be best to quarantine A, B, C & D and retest them every day for the next week... to see who hasn't got the virus. Any that do have it can work alongside E, F & G ??

It's complicated...
I can't belive you posted this without reading what you've actually put. Either that or you're just trolling.
You're saying that in your world if a doctor shows symptons of covid-19 and tests positive then he should be allowed back into the hospital and those that test negative should be made to stay at home.
 

Midwest

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Arms
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I work in a carehome, and speaking for the carers a test to see if one has the virus or not, would be invaluable.

However, would the test be need to be taken at the start of the working week, or when finishing for the day or if you were feeling under the weather? Personally, if I was to wake up tomorrow morning with flu symptoms or sore throat etc, I would not go into work. Perhaps a test then might be beneficial, but coughing & spluttering might be concerning for the residents, even if its just a cold.

I think the only useful test would be to see if you were immune to the virus, but that I believe is some way off.

I sense you guys are arguing party politics, 'cos if it was a Labour Government, the shoe might be on the other foot, but you would still be arguing. Any Government takes its advise from its experts, in this case medical professionals. And they are arguing amongst themselves.
 
I can't belive you posted this without reading what you've actually put. Either that or you're just trolling.
You're saying that in your world if a doctor shows symptons of covid-19 and tests positive then he should be allowed back into the hospital and those that test negative should be made to stay at home.
No... you need to re-read.
 
I work in a carehome, and speaking for the carers a test to see if one has the virus or not, would be invaluable.

However, would the test be need to be taken at the start of the working week, or when finishing for the day or if you were feeling under the weather? Personally, if I was to wake up tomorrow morning with flu symptoms or sore throat etc, I would not go into work. Perhaps a test then might be beneficial, but coughing & spluttering might be concerning for the residents, even if its just a cold
Are you finding there's a shortage of staff at the care home you work in as a result of the virus?

I sense you guys are arguing party politics, 'cos if it was a Labour Government, the shoe might be on the other foot, but you would still be arguing. Any Government takes its advise from its experts, in this case medical professionals. And they are arguing amongst themselves.
Not especially. While my views tend to come from the left rather than right, I certainly wouldn't be defending a labour government if their actions/inactions were any less than perfect under the same circumstances. And we can be fairly sure that they wouldn't be perfect.
 

Midwest

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Arms
Esteemed
Are you finding there's a shortage of staff at the care home you work in as a result of the virus?



Not especially. While my views tend to come from the left rather than right, I certainly wouldn't be defending a labour government if their actions/inactions were any less than perfect under the same circumstances. And we can be fairly sure that they wouldn't be perfect.
Not especially.

Not sure anyone can be perfect, I guess they are trying their best.
 

"In a video message on Twitter on Wednesday evening, he said: "I want to say a special word about testing, because it is so important, and as I have said for weeks and weeks, this is the way through."

Weeks and weeks apparently.

"Mr Johnson was speaking after it was revealed only 2,000 out of some half a million frontline NHS workers in England had been tested."
 

Wilko

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  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #88

"In a video message on Twitter on Wednesday evening, he said: "I want to say a special word about testing, because it is so important, and as I have said for weeks and weeks, this is the way through."

Weeks and weeks apparently.
Ha, in his mind at least.
The spin doctors just can’t help themselves - NewSpeak here we come.
 
BBC a trusted source .. of Spin now ?
( sales talk - need a good test price --OR--)
( UK New 3rd world -poor country ..Rumour starts here)
 
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