I've just had a look into my crystal ball and seen the not to distant future. Due to university fees increasing now, college fees will follow suit. School leavers that would have gone to uni may take the cheaper option and get into one of the many trades "that we are short of" in this country because we all earn "average of 40k+ pa" as per some adverts. Again we need something like a gassafe scheme so Joe blogs knows that he is getting a qualified electrician, it will chase out the cowboys and make sure that the money we have paid for our qualifications is worth our money.
It is a can of worms to be sure, and perfect proof of why balances are so important.
As you say, a shift in the cost of one thing, leads to potential oversupply in another.
I always laugh at the "earn £40k plus tomorrow" ads - if only.
I always give the same advice to anyone looking to take up a trade, especially (though equally applicable) to those who've already had one career, or living, different from the one they're looking at: Be prepared for a long, hard slog. I've taken many a lad out for the day, only to have him decide it isn't for him.
That said, I've taken lads out who were made for it too.
Those adverts, pretty well all of them, remind me of the army recruitment ads of old - major on the benefits, ignore the negatives - like coming home covered in crap every day, like aching from top to bottom because you've spent a day chasing out hard walls by hand (we weren't all born in an age of electric drills with stop action!!!) - rawl plug tools - who remembers those?
Days, no, weeks, of callouses on your fingers from terminating hundred of pots and seals in one board after another.
And yes, days of coming in to find the chippy had gone through your work just to get his wall up, or the plumbers had burnt out the insulation in your conduit by running their copper too close to your runs.
My first week in the game - I was given a reel of 2.5 T&E, a box of clips, a hammer, and a brick wall. I was told to run the cable from one end to the other, in a straight line, with a rounded end at the end into a junction box.
Monday to Thursday, it got ripped off the wall and I was told to do it again, better. I got really hacked off by the Thursday because I thought the run I'd done was perfect - and I remember clearly having a right row with the foreman. He said to me, after I'd vented - that the run had been perfect since the Tuesday - the point was to learn to stick up for the quality of my own work, to appreciate the standards required, and that if I'd thought it was good enough earlier, I really didn't as I kept trying to get it better.
It was a lesson that's stuck with me since. And probably the difference between a "job" and craft.
I'll say this much - it was also a lesson I took with me into MICC work, which was a LOT more prevalent then than now. We never got let loose on real runs until we'd proven we could consistently run it properly on practice boards, every time - that was chalk lining, measuring, drilling (or plug tooling), plugging, dressing the cable (and the p clips), getting the radius of the bends dead right, and the clip ratio round the bends, that we left enough to terminate the MICC on each end, and that we could terminate a perfect MICC every time.
You just don't get education like that any more.