RPI of 2% is very unlikely over the next 20 years
you have also failed to factor in fuel inflation. electricity prices have risen over 20% in the last 2 years.
If I put your pricing into a SAP based calculator with 3% RPI and just 5% fuel inflation the total income from PV after 20Years is £15243 which leaves your ISSA a long way behind.
this is based on SAP, all our installations perform 20-30%above SAP.
I also have accountants as customers and they tell me what I already know, PV is a no brainer.
My parents had it put in because their pension investments were only gaining 6%. They can't touch that capital because it provides their income, so why not stick it on the roof and gain 30% instead (they were on the 43p tariff and somehow managed to get a good deal on their installation!!!)
oh, and also the value of an ISSA can go up as well as down, PV tariffs are guaranteed.
Sorry chap, your figures just don't stand up to even basic scrutiny.
Firstly IMO RPI will be up and down from now on.... so using 2% is a good estimate, however in general I thought I was been really fair as not only did I not factor in what you mentioned but I didnt factor in any repairs or panel/inverter replacements or the very fact that the panels will degrade over time ( my own panel from Sanyo will be only 80% efficient after x amount of yrs )
Before I go on to enlarge of my calculations, I will say this.........
If the OP has only 5K - its really debatable if its really worth it !
However, if the OP has say 15K - he would be foolish not to put 5K of bling on his roof as he could only invest two lots of ~£ 5K into 2 ISA's ( him & partner ) - whether fixed or variable, so he would maximise on his monies, especially if he was to have at his disposal over 10K to invest each year - this is why investments are so personal to the individual and why this always have to be seen on a case by case basis.
Now to tidy my approx calculations up as according to the Energy Saving Trust (
Solar Energy Calculator / Getting money back / Generating energy / Home (England) - Energy Saving Trust England ) it would appear I have been far too generous with my return for the £ 5K - 3kwhr PV installation, but the figs workout in the end very similar. :laugh3:
Accordingly to them and please try it - it suggests on a 3kw "d
ue south ideal with no shading 30degree slope" system that you would only achieve ( random postcode used for example -
PR2 2QB );
Prior to 30April ( generating 2,467kwhr p/a )
Income from FIT - £ 386
Money saved on electric bill - £ 94
Income from grid export - £ 56
TOTAL - £ 531.00 p/a
Total earned over the lifetime of the system - £ 10,510 therefore 5.5K profit over 20yrs
Post 1st May 2013
Income from FIT - £ 368
Money saved on electric bill - £ 94
Income from grid export - £ 56
TOTAL - £ 518.00 p/a
Total earned over the lifetime of the system - £ 10,262 therefore 5.2K profit over 20yrs
( Please note:- again, these "official figs from this website doesnt factor in any repairs or replacements whatsoever !! and states the following;
* The life of a PV system is estimated as 25 years, so these results allow for 20 years of FIT payments and 25 years of bill savings.)
And remember guys if this chap doesnt use a decent sloped mounted frame setup on the flat roof - these figures start to crumble very badly as the angle lowers to zero )
So if you use the official figs given by this official body the payback is even worse than I used !!!
Oh, with regards ISA's - yes they can go down and suppose they may do if the "Bank of England" has its way soon with negative interest rates been introduced.... however someone who looks after their money investments well, would I believe get the best deal for their lump sum year after year after year..........
QED