Solar instal in Blackpool - lots of questions

[Ian-LS]

Ok its the weekend and I have time to provide some more realistic calculations......

Ok lets say the roof is 15 degrees, south facing and the location is Blackpool. Installed cost is £5,000

Ive inputted inverter and cable losses of 10 % which is on the conservative side as most 3 kW inverters are at least 94% efficient. Using 3 kWp, south facing and 15 degrees with 10 % losses PV GIS Comes out with year one ouput of 2,760 kWh.

Year one annual income and savings;

Feed in Tariff = 15.44p x 2,760 kWh = £426
Export = 50% of 2,760 kWh @ 4.5p/kWh = £62
In house savings with 30% used on site = 0.3 x 2,760 kWh x 13.4p = £111

Total Year One income and savings = £599.

Basic ROI 11.98 % and payback time of 8 years.

20 year income and Savings

£14,905

20 Year Profit

£9,905

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) = 9.91%

* RPI assumed to be 2.5% for FIT and export payments
* Electricity prices rise by 8% for first 5 years and then 5% for remaining 15 years
* Inverter replacement costs of £400 included in year 15

Put the £5000 into an ISA for 20 years at 3% interest you'll end up with £9,030. You'll need an interest rate of 3.5% to match the total profit from a PV system. I'm not saying my assumptions are right but a lot better than the energy saving trusts. I always when doing quotes make sure the finances make sense and offer a good return and are as accurate as possible. As i've said the finances still stack up even for low energy users and are a no brainer for high energy users.

 

[SRE]

Danesol - we're Pansonic Premium installers - but we don't install Panasonic at the minute because for most it doesn't make financial sense. I'd appreciate it - and I'm sure some of the others on this forum would too - if you would stop lumping us in with the shiny suit brigade! It's bad enough having to compete on the ground with the rubbish they spout, without someone tarring us all with the same brush on here. How on earth do you know that I'm out to sell solar no matter what? I've turned down quite a few jobs where I just haven't thought the customer hasn't understood the implications of what they are doing. If someone else wants to do that - it's up them but morally I can't do that.

Take a call today for example. Customer wants 4kwp, has had shiny suit round who has told him he can have it - house will meet D rating no problem. Panels are going on a garage roof - 7m wide (haven't been to measure yet but can you see it being 4m ridge to gutter next to a bungalow??) house can't have cavity wall, has a 7 year old gas back boiler and loft insulation. Can you see a problem??????? I'm going tomorrow to look properly but gut instinct tells me it's going to be too small to be viable and doubtful whether it will hit a D rating even with pv because it's a small system. Why am I going - because we're decent installers who hate to see people screwed over.

Give us a break! There are quite a few on here who do know what they are talking about and do provide really good advice. We're not all out to screw our customers. :frown2:

 

[Gavin A]

Put the £5000 into an ISA for 20 years at 3% interest you'll end up with £9,030. You'll need an interest rate of 3.5% to match the total profit from a PV system. I'm not saying my assumptions are right but a lot better than the energy saving trusts. I always when doing quotes make sure the finances make sense and offer a good return and are as accurate as possible. As i've said the finances still stack up even for low energy users and are a no brainer for high energy users.

It won't you know, as that £9030 includes the initial £5000 investment, whereas including the original investment you'd have £14,905 from the solar.

You'd need around 5.7% compound interest rates on your ISA before you hit those sort of 20 year returns, but with solar you could also be reinvesting each year's incomes (as you are doing with compound interest rates on ISAs), in which case you'd then have a much bigger nest egg at the end of the 20 years, plus a working solar system probably generating something like 85-90% of it's original output, energy savings and hopefully export payments.

So with an ISA investment at 5.7% you need to not touch the income in order to generate the same levels of returns over 20 years, whereas with the solar you can spend your annual savings and income as you earn it and still have had a 20 year 9.9% rate of return - which is what the IRR figure is.

To compare like with like, for an ISA where you could get that return at the same time as spending the interest payments you'd need an interest rate of 9.7%, which is a lot higher than I've seen being offered anywhere.

 

[moggy1968]

well said Gavin, one of the many errors in Danesols calculations is he is taking out the profit from solar, and not from the ISA. If you removed the profits from the ISA every year I don't think the returns would look terribly good!

Any sensible investor knows you should try and use the full amount of your ISA allowance and that includes stocks and shares, not just cash.

If you were to invest just £500 a year from your PV output (a lot less than the actual income) into an ISA achieving the rather poor 2.5% a year suggested by Danesol back into the ISA then you would gain an additional income from your PV, according to my very rough back of a smoke packet calculations around £2500 extra income at the end of 20 years (your ISA would be worth about £12500 compared to the £10000 you have paid in)

It shows your financial naivity that you think 2.5% is a good investment on an ISA. That would mean that in 20 years your money will be worth less than it was when you paid it in, because as sure as eggs is eggs, RPI will be higher than 2.5% over 20 years. PV on the other hand, will keep pace with RPI.

It is also worth pointing out that one of the arguments against solar is that the money you have spent on it is gone, as though you had just thrown it away so it isn't factored in to calculations, but the evidence is that having PV on your roof does actually increase the value of your home.

incindently, my latest ISA, which includes stocks and shares, has gone up 11.5% in the 6 months I have had it, 17% last year and 15% annualised over the last 5 years, but I would still put PV on my roof rather than paying extra into this as PV is one of the best returning and safest invesments you can make.

 

[moggy1968]

No it isnt - thats including the share addition, which is opening another complete can of worms !!

Lets just keep it against the cash part of one person ISA which this year is exactly as follows;

""For the current 2012-13 tax year, the annual ISA allowance is £11,280, but only £5,640 of that may be used for a cash ISA. From April 6 2013, this will increase to £11,520, of which £5,760 can be put in a cash ISA. ""

yes, but thats not what you said.
you said

However, if the OP has say 15K - he would be foolish not to put 5K of bling on his roof as he could only invest two lots of ~£ 5K into 2 ISA's ( him & partner ) - whether fixed or variable, so he would maximise on his monies, especially if he was to have at his disposal over 10K to invest each year - this is why investments are so personal to the individual and why this always have to be seen on a case by case basis.

which is incorrect

you may well have got in when the rates were better, but the systems were also considerably more expensive, especially on Sanyo/panasonic. I would suggest your payback time is probably only 2-3 years better than someone installing a system now.
If they made use of the technologies now available for improving output (such as microinverters) and consumption use (such as immersun) then the figures will be even closer.
Yes I am an installer, but like all the ones who are arguing against you here (all experienced, respected and reputable installers) I am more interested in giving good honest advice than flogging systems, to the point that I have occasionally talked myself out of business.

 

[Earthstore]

I would like to make one point clear here, I am not in this part of the industry at present, so therefore am not trying to sell the OP a system, however due to something larger on the horizon I still follow the industry as I do not want all of my knowledge to go to waste, so therefore have no axe to grind.

Danesol, the OP never mentioned anything about ISA's, that was your doing, and even though you have been advised several times that you calculations are incorrect and the source of your information is incorrect also, which it is, it appears you are trying to convince yourself rather than convince the experts.

At no point has anybody taking up on my point of borrowing the money and paying it back with the income that you gain, which is what the Green Deal is based upon, however if you do it yourself rather than take the GD option the figures stack up much better.

As I have put before there are so many permutations and assumptions that you can use in making these type of calculations, it is easy to convince yourself one way or the other.

For your information, I may be involved in some large scale projects, which will be funded by investors, and trust me if the numbers do not work as you say then these people would not have spent so much time and money to get the project off the ground.

So please, open your eyes here and see the light.

 

[cjapeterborough]

I have looked through the thread and am surprised that there are folk who dont think PV is still worth the investment.

I purchased a 4kw system in mid 2011 so was fortunate to get in at the higher FIT rate but probably paid double than current market prices for my system at that time.
System prices have fallen,fit rates have fallen but investment returns from conventional deposits,annuities and everything else have also fallen if your looking for "risk free"

However if you are an isa investor in Cyprus at the moment the government there has just announced a smash and grab 10% levy on all personal savings deposits to help the national debt.
-I guess they would have a hard job ripping the panels of your roof once on -so what really can be a risk free investment in these times?

My own rough calculations proved to me,that for a one off upfront investment,the annual return would more or less cover my total annual gas and electricity bill for the next 25years

For the £5K upfront investment you are probably going to cover a significant proportion of your total energy bill for the next 20years.


Without turning this into an exact science with the math I am pretty sure inflation will continue to rise and energy costs also.
The government will also no doubt keep interfering with FIT and create more obstacles and rules to follow in the future-after all what else would they do
to justify themselves-sort out some "real" problems -I dont think so?

So it makes sense to buy sooner rather than later.

PV at this time is still a no brainer to invest in -where else can you get the the return against inflation and the nett added benefits of reducing your electricity costs?

ISA's in cash form wont even keep up with inflation so every year your savings will be worth less if you go that route,you could gamble on a horse or perhaps get lucky with
the stockmarket.....but for a virtually risk free investment return then as a householder you cant beat a PV system- provided you have the roof space to put one on!

Oh and if the country goes bust the government is unlikely to come round and nick the panels.........

 

[john999uk]

Thanks for everyone's posts. One thing the posts have highlighted is that PV must be looked at in detail an not just jumped into. As people have said it is not for everyone and everyone's circumstances are different.

Thanks very much for all the info.

 

[moggy1968]

yep, it's a significant investment and doing your homework is a must. Get at least three quotes and, if you decide to go for it, go with the one that seems to be the most honest, the one you feel you can trust and work with rather than necessarilly the cheapest.
Don't be swayed by the glossy brochure, be swayed by the integrity of the person that comes to see you.

 

[danesol]

yes, but thats not what you said.
you said

However, if the OP has say 15K - he would be foolish not to put 5K of bling on his roof as he could only invest two lots of ~£ 5K into 2 ISA's ( him & partner ) - whether fixed or variable, so he would maximise on his monies, especially if he was to have at his disposal over 10K to invest each year - this is why investments are so personal to the individual and why this always have to be seen on a case by case basis.

which is incorrect

It is not !

you may well have got in when the rates were better, but the systems were also considerably more expensive, especially on Sanyo/panasonic. I would suggest your payback time is probably only 2-3 years better than someone installing a system now.
If they made use of the technologies now available for improving output (such as microinverters) and consumption use (such as immersun) then the figures will be even closer.
Yes I am an installer, but like all the ones who are arguing against you here (all experienced, respected and reputable installers) I am more interested in giving good honest advice than flogging systems, to the point that I have occasionally talked myself out of business.

Again you are trying to miss inform and trying to angle this to support your claim, in reality it doesnt really matter that much when payback time - for endusers fortunate such as myself who installed prior to DOS day ( ie. DEC 2011 approx ) we will make a killing thereafter - people installing now wont get the level of income we will command and for 5yrs longer as well !!

Overall, depending on what your installation costs were prior to DOS day vs installations now - the return and investment in general isnt half as good !! FACT

 

[danesol]

I have looked through the thread and am surprised that there are folk who dont think PV is still worth the investment.

I purchased a 4kw system in mid 2011 so was fortunate to get in at the higher FIT rate but probably paid double than current market prices for my system at that time.
System prices have fallen,fit rates have fallen but investment returns from conventional deposits,annuities and everything else have also fallen if your looking for "risk free"

However if you are an isa investor in Cyprus at the moment the government there has just announced a smash and grab 10% levy on all personal savings deposits to help the national debt.
-I guess they would have a hard job ripping the panels of your roof once on -so what really can be a risk free investment in these times?

My own rough calculations proved to me,that for a one off upfront investment,the annual return would more or less cover my total annual gas and electricity bill for the next 25years

For the £5K upfront investment you are probably going to cover a significant proportion of your total energy bill for the next 20years.


Without turning this into an exact science with the math I am pretty sure inflation will continue to rise and energy costs also.
The government will also no doubt keep interfering with FIT and create more obstacles and rules to follow in the future-after all what else would they do
to justify themselves-sort out some "real" problems -I dont think so?

So it makes sense to buy sooner rather than later.

PV at this time is still a no brainer to invest in -where else can you get the the return against inflation and the nett added benefits of reducing your electricity costs?

ISA's in cash form wont even keep up with inflation so every year your savings will be worth less if you go that route,you could gamble on a horse or perhaps get lucky with
the stockmarket.....but for a virtually risk free investment return then as a householder you cant beat a PV system- provided you have the roof space to put one on!

Oh and if the country goes bust the government is unlikely to come round and nick the panels.........

I agree with the majority you state, but you can only install once and you like myself are very fortunate we did install when we did, but to suggest its even as good investment (financial return ) is wrong and if you are not going to be in the house more or less the full term, you wont get back the return anyway.

With regards the country going bust, which technically we already are at 4 trillion including pensions, the claim about PV thereafter is unjustified as if there is NO grid power your PV wont work anyway and will be dead electronics, unless that is you convert it to an island system

 

[danesol]

Thanks for everyone's posts. One thing the posts have highlighted is that PV must be looked at in detail an not just jumped into. As people have said it is not for everyone and everyone's circumstances are different.

Thanks very much for all the info.

yep, it's a significant investment and doing your homework is a must. Get at least three quotes and, if you decide to go for it, go with the one that seems to be the most honest, the one you feel you can trust and work with rather than necessarilly the cheapest.
Don't be swayed by the glossy brochure, be swayed by the integrity of the person that comes to see you.

I agree 100% with this though.... and caution is my own concern here for some, especially small home installations where no-one is at home to use all the surplus electric as not everyone can use Immersun or the like ( without considerable effort ) !

 

[moggy1968]

sometimes, your dealing with such a level of ignorance missinformation and obstanance there is no point trying to explain.
I have now reached that point, ta ta

 

[danesol]

sometimes, your dealing with such a level of ignorance missinformation and obstanance there is no point trying to explain.
I have now reached that point, ta ta

Which bit dont you like.............. ??

Me suggesting that its FACT that the return was better pre DOS day

or

Me suggesting that the return now isnt as good as it was and you have to be really thorough with the numbers now and consider more seriously - factors such as how much electric will you use during the day, can you install & make full use of an associated system such as Immersun etc

or the mere suggestion that if you dont reside at that installation property untill full term, you wont get your return back ??

hmmmmm

 

[cjapeterborough]

Which bit dont you like.............. ??

Me suggesting that its FACT that the return was better pre DOS day

or

Me suggesting that the return now isnt as good as it was and you have to be really thorough with the numbers now and consider more seriously - factors such as how much electric will you use during the day, can you install & make full use of an associated system such as Immersun etc

or the mere suggestion that if you dont reside at that installation property untill full term, you wont get your return back ??

hmmmmm

Just to get this in perspective can you suggest a better investment than PV at the moment?

You and I both made a "killing" investing early thats great- but everything is still relative to what can be achieved now.

Just means its not quite as good as it was a few years ago -but then again ISA's were paying probably 4% then

If you can find me an investment that will return at least 8% pa tax free with the same risk profile- I would happily pay you a finders fee...
Everything else is either going backwards or has much higher risk.

As for the longevity of the investment it should both enhance the value of your property and you can retain the FIT contract even if you move.

The same risk could be applied to any investment -pull the money early and you will suffer a penalty.

 

[danesol]

sometimes, your dealing with such a level of ignorance missinformation and obstanance there is no point trying to explain.
I have now reached that point, ta ta

For the record, this is just one quote of MANY, I had from one particular company back in OCT 2011;





I didnt go with these, as I luckily sourced a Sanyo/SMA setup for about the same money locally

 

[danesol]

Just to get this in perspective can you suggest a better investment than PV at the moment?

You and I both made a "killing" investing early thats great- but everything is still relative to what can be achieved now.

Just means its not quite as good as it was a few years ago -but then again ISA's were paying probably 4% then

If you can find me an investment that will return at least 8% pa tax free with the same risk profile- I would happily pay you a finders fee...
Everything else is either going backwards or has much higher risk.

As for the longevity of the investment it should both enhance the value of your property and you can retain the FIT contract even if you move.

The same risk could be applied to any investment -pull the money early and you will suffer a penalty.

LOL, no I can't, but what I have tried to suggest is at least an investment such as a tax free ISA is a safe bet, even if they are now poor returns compared yrs when they began.

However - If you dont move for near enough 20yrs, have a good roof and cam get between a 3 - 4KW system fitted, can use all the excess electric with or without an Immersun - I would say DO IT !!!

But ensure you have professional installation companies with loads of experience like you mostly see on here helping ppl like you & me - but still do your homework and do the sums and you will be fine but dont take as gospel that's its a great investment.

I'll remember you mentioned a finders fee incase anything turns up

 

[moggy1968]

Which bit dont you like.............. ??

Me suggesting that its FACT that the return was better pre DOS day

or

Me suggesting that the return now isnt as good as it was and you have to be really thorough with the numbers now and consider more seriously - factors such as how much electric will you use during the day, can you install & make full use of an associated system such as Immersun etc

or the mere suggestion that if you dont reside at that installation property untill full term, you wont get your return back ??

hmmmmm

The fact your talking rubbish and your argument is fundamentally floored, as has been demonstrated by numerous people, but is evident your one of those people who will stumble blindly on regardless of any evidence to the contrary so there is no point in me continuing to point out the blindingly obvious.

BTW, have spent my afternoon doing the paperwork for a 2.25kW system which will offer an annual return of 13.2% based around a rather pessimistic 3%RPI and 5% fuel inflation, so, not as good as yours 'making a killing' but good enough to justify spending some of their redundancy from the army on.

Arguably, morally, people shouldn't be 'making a killing' from PV, they should be making a reasonable enough return to make it worthwhile investing in renewable energy in order to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. PV is an investment in the environment, if you make a few quid along the way then bonus, but PV is not, and was never meant to be a get rich quick scheme.

 

[danesol]

The fact your talking rubbish and your argument is fundamentally floored, as has been demonstrated by numerous people, but is evident your one of those people who will stumble blindly on regardless of any evidence to the contrary so there is no point in me continuing to point out the blindingly obvious.

BTW, have spent my afternoon doing the paperwork for a 2.25kW system which will offer an annual return of 13.2% based around a rather pessimistic 3%RPI and 5% fuel inflation, so, not as good as yours 'making a killing' but good enough to justify spending some of their redundancy from the army on.

Arguably, morally, people shouldn't be 'making a killing' from PV, they should be making a reasonable enough return to make it worthwhile investing in renewable energy in order to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. PV is an investment in the environment, if you make a few quid along the way then bonus, but PV is not, and was never meant to be a get rich quick scheme.

I thought you had reached your point - obviously NOT !

I agree with you it should have been about the environment and doing your bit to help, whilst making a modest gain, infact there were better and greener ways to generate and help save the environment, but that wasnt the point of this thread and I have clearly stated before on this forum that the tariff scheme was flawed from the very start and if the government were so bothered about the environment they would of gone round and selected the perfect roofs in the perfects regions for the best gains, but no it was introduced as a financial incentive which was taken up far greater than expected and paid by people who couldnt afford the bling on their roof through their Electric bill's VAT amount, which as you know is what funds the past & future FiT tarrif scheme, so dont get all moral with me..... lol

ps> I use the term "killing" in comparison against ISA return pre DOS day and against Tarrif return now so there's no confusion.

 

[Earthstore]

Danesol, I noticed that your Sanyo system only made 98% of the SAP calculation, strange that as most systems appear to be 10% over SAP, and that is without Sanyo panels, me thinks you have a design fault there, any comments chaps?