22GW to 11GW - DECC halve solar ambition

[SolarCity]

Did anyone see this? Apparently Barker's response to the low installation figures is to halve the target.

Truly staggering if this is true.

 

[Ian-LS]

Where did you hear that?

This is one their website "Uptake by 2020 will however depend on when solar PV becomes viable with little or no subsidy and 22GW by 2020 is an achievable ambition if industry can get its cost down quickly"

It would be stupid to down grade our target to 11 GW based on a few months of low installation figures

 

[SolarCity]

Lots of talk about it on Twitter right now.

 

[TedM]

It's at para 72 of yesterday's release of the impact assessment.

 

[TedM]

This is what it says:

72. At 11.9GW the central 2020 deployment projection is considerably less than the central estimate in the draft February Phase 2A IA at 22GW. This is largely because PB's estimate for the cost of large scale PV installations is significantly higher than in their February report, and PB projects much slower reductions in installation costs from 2014 onwards than previously estimated. Furthermore, it is assumed that investor hurdle rates are higher than before, leading to less uptake at a given tariff. The sensitivity of deployment to these assumptions is analysed through scenarios in the “Sensitivities” section below. This shows a possible range of deployment of 3.5GW to 21.1GW in 2020.

PB is Parsons Brinckerhoff.

 

[Ian-LS]

Again tucked away in the impact assessment.

I have to make this point though. "The energy efficiency requirement. This is modelled on a similar basis as in the Phase 1 impact assessment. It is assumed that the requirement reduces available technical potential for deployment by 40% in 2012/13, 25% in 2013/14 and by 10% from 2014-15 onwards."

If the EPC requirement were to be removed what would the projection by till 2020? I would guess t would be between around 15-20 GW

 

[Ian-LS]

Another point to make why did they waste time looking at option 1- which was do nothing?

Who the hell is suggesting we do nothing? What a waste of time coming up with an impact assessment that nobody is suggesting should happen - was anyone advocating 21p/kWh be kept for all new installations for next few years?

 

[SRE]

What I'm a little peeved about is the media coverage from our green media friends suggesting that the industry is welcoming it. Maybe the big guys and the floor tile companies ;-) but I'm not sure I welcome it. I'm having to fork out for re-printing of literature for the 3rd time in 7 months binning perfectly good marketing materials and I'm trying to work out how many jobs we need to get in before August to see us through the Winter.

 

[TedM]

You need to get a sign put up outside your office similar to those used at petrol stations. You could change the rate every day.