So thought I'd add my 2p,
What I see happening is, Large scale ground mounts will continue albeit as Ted says not so many of them.
A lot of the large scale ground guys are already moving into the 5MW and below area, main problem this will bring is rapid degression in the sub 5MW tariffs. The degression level is already close to the automatic 3.5% on a quarterly basis so I would be very surprised if we don't end up with a 3.5% in Q2 (following the Q1 April drop) and maybe even a 7% in Q3 and another 3.5 or 7% in Q4.
I know how much large roof were looking at and some of that will take up half a quarters deployment just from us.
With those sorts of degression the rooftop market will maybe get the edge taken off it but it won't stop it as the returns will still be good. However I think the 5MW ground market will get rapidly killed off I think if you've not done those before the end of this year it'll be too late.
Although the large scale will most likely pick up again in 2017/18 when CfD's start to take effect if the panel price continues to fall.
Mid scale commercial (50-250kW) has a bright future as returns at the moment are really good. I don't see that market changing much for 12-18 months
However, theres a FiT review that will be announced by the new government (whoever wins) in the autumn and that could spell bad news as I'm hearing rumours that treasury are wanting drastically cut the support.
Only positive is that the ROC's for rooftop is much harder to cut and should be ok for another two years.
On the more positive side, hopefully MIP pricing will be removed at the end of the year which would be a real boon and see pricing on panel drop into the mid 30p's range at that level the returns on a fully consumed onsite PV system should be getting close to standing on their own feet with tariff, we just need the Saudi's to stop keeping oil low and the Russians to cut off gas to Ukraine elec prices will bounce back again and make things easier to justify that prices will continue to rise.
