Where do you think prices will go in the next 6 months?

[SRE]

I'm a bit worried that we're pricing for jobs at today's prices but are booking in for December/January. Any thoughts about where prices are going in the next few months? If we're this busy so must others be and I'm concerned that prices will increase before we install as a result of market forces. Do I worry too much????

 

[grel]

i don't think the market will go up as prices are coming down every week from manufactures so if anything they will be lower ! if you need any help getting any prices please contact us as we supply solar panels and inverters some of the best on the market we think ! [email protected] (we have a 5 HJ 260watt panels and a 1.5kw inverter last in stock for £1500 plus vat ono must go asap)

 

[SRE]

I'm having difficulty getting certain panels already, I dread to think what it's going to be like coming up to March.

Anyway it's irrelevant because I'm going to win the Euro lottery tonight

 

[SolarCity]

The month of March is going to take some serious planning, that is for sure. I think the MCS website will go into meltdown at the end of the month.

 

[MorganPVI]

I think having huge stocks ready for March is going to be a winner, if the panels can be installed by 31st i'm sure you could name your price. On the prices question, probably fall a little then stabilize.

 

[SolarCity]

I expect prices to stabilise now until January. The market after that is dependant on the FITs review. Judging by Chris Huhne's pathetic knowledge of PV and the market, I am worried that he will announce a dramatic drop in FITs and the rush before March will be huge. I expect prices after January to rise dramatically if this is the case as demand far exceeds supply. And consequently I expect many customers will go for cheaper installers and quality will be somewhere near the floor.

 

[SRE]

It makes you wonder whether secure storage for 6 months might be worthwhile. If you already have the orders. Crystal ball anyone?

 

[Worcester]

No Crystal ball, however we do have a big warehouse, and ours will be full in December!

The advantage is that in the rush, people will accept what stocks of panels are available rather than what they might previusly have had the luxury to choose.

It's a bit like when the tyre goes bald, you would like.... but you gotta have it today!

(Like when you were in the college bar, at the start of the evening, before the beer, you would like, - but a few beers later , this is what's left ... )

 

[solarsavings]

Most of you must have very big pile of money too.

 

[SRE]

Just haven't spent much of what we've made so far. It feels a bit like being on a treadmill though. You get enough to set up and get accreditation and get a couple of sales which is just as well because you then realise what tools you're missing and software you can't do without so that money goes.

Then you hit the vat carry on and you still can't touch anything you've made cos you're skint. Then you get the vat back but your customers are now recommending you to their friends and you have to double up installs so you need more cash and now you're going to have to buy in advance so you still can't spend any cash!!

I'm booking April off and going on a long, expensive, holiday

 

[MorganPVI]

Nail on head there SRE.

Christmas for me, 2 weeks somewhere hot.

 

[series530]

Like anything, if demand outstrips supply the prices can be hiked.

I missed the summer this year while I procrastinated. No big deal because there will be plenty of summers over the next 25 years. The British public will wake up having overcome the cost of Christmas 2011 and will start to think about PV. They will be scared by the possible reductions in FIT and will want to jump on the band wagon at any price.

I could be wrong with my simple calculation - let's say the FIT is dropped by 8% (just a number) and let's say the average harvest per year is £1000. That's a drop in £80 a year. Ignoring index linking so as to keep it simple, over 25 years that's a reduction of £2000. Somebody placing that order with installation just before April 1st compared to somebody placing an order toward the end of 2012 (when the demand is lower and the cost of the technology has dropped that bit more) could end up paying more than a £2000 difference. Take a shorter term view: somebody who buys next March and moves house in 10 years: £800 loss in harvest value - I'd almost put money on them being worse off.

Now, will the average customer do the math? somehow I doubt it. What they see is the "government" giving them less free money after April and they will want to get in at any price.

So, I don't blame you - make money while you can. Use the free market to your advantage. I hope you have a bumper business harvest coming up to April and that I get a bumper energy harvest in the summer that follows it


Ian

 

[SRE]

Like anything, if demand outstrips supply the prices can be hiked.

The British public will wake up having overcome the cost of Christmas 2011 and will start to think about PV.

Now, will the average customer do the math? somehow I doubt it. What they see is the "government" giving them less free money after April and they will want to get in at any price,

Ian

It's happening already Ian, every customer that I speak to mentions installation before the end of March, that's why we've got our first booking for January and only 2 spaces left before Christmas. Make sure you don't leave it too late before you chose your installer

 

[series530]

It's happening already Ian, every customer that I speak to mentions installation before the end of March, that's why we've got our first booking for January and only 2 spaces left before Christmas. Make sure you don't leave it too late before you chose your installer

Hi SRE,

Our supplier is chosen, we're provisionally slotted and I have just paid them the deposit. As you may be aware, due to some shading we're taking the 3.5KWp Sanyo panels with Enecsys micro inverters. It all hinges on Enecsys starting up their supply chain again. Not exactly a cheap system but, as I've said before, I'm taking a long term view with PV (and crossing my fingers at the same time) :smiley2:

Ian